Match Info

Segunda Division - Round 16

Date: 29 August 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, Disney+
Usa	SportsEngine Play
Venezuela	Disney+


	Uruguay Montevideo		La Luz

	1	X	2
	3.10	2.80	2.25
	3.2	2.75	2.25
	2.93	2.87	2.59
	2.94	2.9	2.6	Watch
	3.35	2.7	2.3
	3.25	3.14	2.26
	3.15	2.8	2.24
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.13 ↑ (2.86)	2.85 ↑ (2.8)	2.36 ↓ (2.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Uruguay Montevideo
29.2%

Draw
32%

La Luz
38.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.6%

32.4%

36%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.2%

30.8%

34.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Uruguay Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

La Luz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Uruguay Montevideo than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for La Luz than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Uruguay Montevideo - La Luz Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 14 and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Uruguay Montevideo won 2.

Uruguay Montevideo has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

La Luz is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Uruguay Montevideo won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 5:8. (average 0.6:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Uruguay Montevideo won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 0.7:0.7).

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	La Luz	21	7	6	8	19:24	-5	27
14	Uruguay Montevideo	21	4	5	12	19:31	-12	17

Last Results with these Odds

Uruguay Montevideo - the odds 2.86 are the expected chance of winning is 31.63%, but this team recently wins 21% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Uruguay Montevideo
Uruguayan Segunda Division
22.08.26	Cerrito - Uruguay Montevideo	3:0 ✺
15.08.26	Uruguay Montevideo - Atenas de San Carlos	1:2 ✺
08.08.26	Uruguay Montevideo - Paysandú	1:0 ✺
01.08.26	Huracán Paso de la Arena - Uruguay Montevideo	1:3 ✺
18.07.26	Uruguay Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 LLWWT
- La Luz FC
Uruguayan Segunda Division
23.08.26	La Luz - Oriental de La Paz	0:2 ✺
16.08.26	Colón Montevideo - La Luz	2:1 ✺
08.08.26	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - La Luz	0:0 ✺
01.08.26	La Luz - Rentistas	2:5 ✺
26.07.26	Miramar Misiones - La Luz	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Segunda Division
24.05.26	La Luz - Uruguay Montevideo	2:0
11.04.26	La Luz - Uruguay Montevideo	0:2
11.10.25	Uruguay Montevideo - La Luz	0:0
19.07.25	La Luz - Uruguay Montevideo	1:0
19.10.24	Uruguay Montevideo - La Luz	1:0
10.07.24	La Luz - Uruguay Montevideo	1:0
16.03.24	La Luz - Uruguay Montevideo	1:0

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