Match Info

Ligue 3 - Round 9

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Stade Henri-Desgranges (La Roche-sur-Yon)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Italy	Ligue 1+
United-kingdom	Ligue 1+


	La Roche VF		Aubagne

	1	X	2
	1.66	3.60	4.20
	1.67	3.50	4.30
	1.79	3.76	4.45
	1.71	3.66	4.27
	1.75	3.70	4.40
	1.74	4.05	4.36
	1.73	3.55	4.20
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↑ (1.7)	3.69 ↑ (3.59)	4.31 ↓ (4.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

La Roche VF
53.6%

Draw
25%

Aubagne
21.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.7%

25.5%

20.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.3%

24.8%

20.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

La Roche VF has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Aubagne has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for La Roche VF than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aubagne than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

La Roche VF - Aubagne Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ahamada I. (G) 27. Lamy H. 18. Rabuel M. 5. Allemand T. (C) 29. Violleau G. 2. Mahop M. 11. Bangoura D. 10. Ndiaye M. 26. Beaulieu J. 20. Araujo A. 9. Samb M.	16. Moreira T. (G) 24. Ahamada S. 26. Nehari M. (C) 5. Doucoure R. 23. Aradj Y. 6. Tafni A. 11. Tafni B. 27. Sahraoui J. 18. Oudjani A. 10. Cisse K. 17. Porsan Clemente J.
Substitutes
4. Behlow J. 8. Bensoula K. 15. Jacob M. 22. Morel E. 16. Raux J. (G) 19. Villette M. 17. Vrignon M.	21. Ahamadi M. 32. Assoumani M. 20. Bellebrahim A. 37. Faiz A. 1. Toure I. (G) 4. Valme R. 9. Zemoura Y.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
16', 0 - 1, Tafni B. ⚽, Ahamada S. (A),
17', Araujo A. 🟨,
45+3', Ndiaye M. 🟨,
45+3', Tafni A. 🟨,
45+3', 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
53', 1 - 1, Bangoura D. ⚽,
55', Rabuel M. 🟨,
56', 2 - 1, Allemand T. ⚽,
59', Oudjani A. ↓, Faiz A. ↑,
61', Bangoura D. 🟨,
66', Lamy H. ↓, Jacob M. ↑,
66', Bangoura D. ↓, Bensoula K. ↑,
70', Tafni B. ↓, Zemoura Y. ↑,
71', 3 - 1, Samb M. ⚽, Araujo A. (A),
77', Ndiaye M. ↓, Vrignon M. ↑,
77', Araujo A. ↓, Morel E. ↑,
90', Ahamada S. 🟨,
90+3', Samb M. ↓, Villette M. ↑,
90+4', Cisse K. 🟥,

Preview

A clear contrast in standings as an upper-tier team meets a relegation-threatened side (ranked 1st in the Promotion - Ligue 2 and 16th in the Relegation).

La Roche VF has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Aubagne has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

In this matchup, La Roche VF is considered the favorite to take the win.

Our forecast points to a victory for La Roche VF in today's match, at odds of 1.73.

These two teams have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	La Roche	9	6	3	0	15:8	7	21
16	Aubagne	9	2	1	6	6:12	-6	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- La Roche Vendée Football
French Ligue 3
26.09.26	Thionville Lusitanos - La Roche VF	1:2 ✺
19.09.26	La Roche VF - Valenciennes	3:2 ✺
12.09.26	Villefranche - La Roche VF	0:0 ✺
05.09.26	La Roche VF - Quevilly	1:1 ✺
29.08.26	Orleans - La Roche VF	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WWTTW
- SC Aubagne Air Bel
French Ligue 3
26.09.26	Fleury 91 - Aubagne	1:2 ✺
19.09.26	Rouen FC - Aubagne	1:0 ✺
12.09.26	Aubagne - Concarneau	1:2 ✺
05.09.26	Paris 13 Atletico - Aubagne	0:0 ✺
29.08.26	Aubagne - Bourg-Péronnas	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WLLTW

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