Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 4 - Round 21

Date: 1 February 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	WebDirecto


	La Unión		Lorca Deportiva

	1	X	2
	2.05	3	3.45
	2.11	2.98	3.86
	2.05	3.07	3.67	Watch
	2.04	2.92	3.75
	2.05	3	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↑ (2.02)	2.99 ↓ (3.02)	3.7 ↑ (3.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

La Unión
44.5%

Draw
30.6%

Lorca Deportiva
24.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.8%

29.9%

25.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.9%

29.8%

25.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

La Unión has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Lorca Deportiva has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for La Unión than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorca Deportiva than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

La Unión - Lorca Deportiva Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
36', 0 - 1, Naranjo J. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
55', 0 - 2, Heredia A. ⚽,
72', El Kounni K. 🟥,
90+3', 1 - 2, Ruiz C. ⚽,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 9 and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, La Unión won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

La Unión might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, La Unión won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 6:7. (average 0.7:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, La Unión won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:1. (average 0:0.3).

Last Results with these Odds

La Unión - the odds 2.02 are the expected chance of winning is 44.83%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- La Unión CF
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
25.01.26	Melilla - La Unión	2:2 ✺
18.01.26	La Unión - Antoniano	2:2 ✺
11.01.26	Xerez Deportivo - La Unión	4:2 ✺
04.01.26	La Unión - Estepona	0:3 ✺
21.12.25	UCAM Murcia - La Unión	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 TTLLW
- CF Lorca Deportiva
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
25.01.26	Lorca Deportiva - Recreativo Huelva	0:0 ✺
18.01.26	Real Jaén - Lorca Deportiva	4:2 ✺
11.01.26	Puente Genil - Lorca Deportiva	1:0 ✺
04.01.26	Lorca Deportiva - Almeria B	1:0 ✺
21.12.25	Xerez Deportivo - Lorca Deportiva	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 TLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
20.09.25	Lorca Deportiva - La Unión	1:2
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 13
21.05.23	Lorca Deportiva - La Unión	0:1
14.05.23	La Unión - Lorca Deportiva	0:0
19.02.23	Lorca Deportiva - La Unión	2:1
23.10.22	La Unión - Lorca Deportiva	0:0
19.01.22	La Unión - Lorca Deportiva	0:0 penalties
05.09.21	Lorca Deportiva - La Unión	1:2

Upcoming Matches