Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 4 - Round 18

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub


	Puente Genil		Lorca Deportiva

	1	X	2
	1.95	2.92	3.9
	2.04	2.87	4.05	Watch
	1.95	2.8	4
	1.94	2.92	4.14
	2	2.9	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.98 ↓ (2.36)	2.88 ↓ (2.89)	4.02 ↑ (3.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Puente Genil
45.9%

Draw
31.5%

Lorca Deportiva
22.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.5%

31.4%

30.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.4%

31.5%

30.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Puente Genil has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Puente Genil's performance.

Lorca Deportiva has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lorca Deportiva might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Puente Genil than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Puente Genil that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorca Deportiva than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lorca Deportiva could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Puente Genil - Lorca Deportiva Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
86', 1 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 14 in the zone Relegation and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Segunda RFEF ~ Promotion Play Offs).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Puente Genil won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Puente Genil	5	1	1	3	5:5	0	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Puente Genil FC
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
04.01.26	Minera - Puente Genil	2:1 ✺
20.12.25	Puente Genil - Linares Deportivo	1:1 ✺
14.12.25	Estepona - Puente Genil	1:2 ✺
07.12.25	Puente Genil - Almeria B	1:0 ✺
30.11.25	Puente Genil - Melilla	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 LTWWT
- CF Lorca Deportiva
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
04.01.26	Lorca Deportiva - Almeria B	1:0 ✺
21.12.25	Xerez Deportivo - Lorca Deportiva	0:0 ✺
14.12.25	Lorca Deportiva - Águilas	0:1 ✺
07.12.25	Antoniano - Lorca Deportiva	3:1 ✺
30.11.25	Lorca Deportiva - Atlético Malagueño	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
12.11.25	Lorca Deportiva - Puente Genil	1:0

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