Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D - Round 23

Date: 22 March 2026, Sunday


	Lagoa		Atlético da Malveira

	1	X	2
	2.4	2.9	2.75
	2.35	3	2.82
	2.64	2.86	2.66
	2.56	3.01	2.7	Watch
	2.5	2.8	2.5
	2.58	2.86	2.66
	2.2	3.1	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.46 ↑ (2.2)	2.93 ↓ (3.1)	2.71 ↓ (2.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lagoa
36.4%

Draw
30.5%

Atlético da Malveira
33.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.3%

28.6%

31.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41%

29.1%

30.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lagoa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Atlético da Malveira has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lagoa than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético da Malveira than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Lagoa - Atlético da Malveira Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 6 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Campeonato de Portugal ~ Promotion Group).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Lagoa won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Lagoa	4	1	2	1	3:3	0	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lagoa
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
15.03.26	Alverca B - Lagoa	2:1 ✺
08.03.26	Lagoa - Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	3:0 ✺
01.03.26	Elvas - Lagoa	4:0 ✺
22.02.26	Lagoa - Moncarapachense	2:1 ✺
15.02.26	Juventude de Évora - Lagoa	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LWLWL
- Atlético da Malveira
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
15.03.26	Atlético da Malveira - Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	4:1 ✺
08.03.26	Moncarapachense - Atlético da Malveira	1:0 ✺
01.03.26	Atlético da Malveira - Comércio e Indústria	4:2 ✺
22.02.26	Serpa - Atlético da Malveira	1:0 ✺
15.02.26	Atlético da Malveira - Alcochetense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
29.11.25	Atlético da Malveira - Lagoa	1:1

Lagoa - Atlético da Malveira: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide