Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D - Round 19

Date: 22 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Complexo Desportivo Manuel Baião (Serpa)


	Serpa		Atlético da Malveira

	1	X	2
	2.35	2.92	2.92
	2.48	2.95	2.85	Watch
	2.5	2.63	2.8
	2.44	3.09	2.88
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.44 ↑ (2.4)	2.9 ↓ (3)	2.86 (2.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Serpa
37.1%

Draw
31.3%

Atlético da Malveira
31.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.9%

30.3%

31.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.5%

30.6%

32.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Serpa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Atlético da Malveira has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Serpa than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético da Malveira than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Serpa - Atlético da Malveira Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
23', (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
54', 1 - 0, ⚽,
86', 🟥,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 5 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Campeonato de Portugal ~ Promotion Group).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Malveira may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Serpa will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Serpa won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Serpa	4	1	3	0	6:4	2	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Serpa
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
15.02.26	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira - Serpa	2:2 ✺
07.02.26	Serpa - Moncarapachense	1:1 ✺
25.01.26	Comércio e Indústria - Serpa	1:2 ✺
17.01.26	Lagoa - Serpa	5:0 ✺
10.01.26	Serpa - Alcochetense	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 TTWLW
- Atlético da Malveira
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
15.02.26	Atlético da Malveira - Alcochetense	1:0 ✺
08.02.26	Oriental - Atlético da Malveira	2:2 ✺
25.01.26	Atlético da Malveira - Alverca B	1:2 ✺
17.01.26	Elvas - Atlético da Malveira	1:3 ✺
10.01.26	Juventude de Évora - Atlético da Malveira	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 WTLWT

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
05.10.25	Atlético da Malveira - Serpa	2:2

Serpa - Atlético da Malveira: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide