Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 16 September 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Ciudad de Lanús – Néstor Díaz Pérez (Lanús)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bolivia	Tigo Sports 2, Tigo Sports App
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, Paramount+, SBT, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	DirecTV Sports
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 9
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 3
Italy	Como TV
Kosovo	Arena Premium 1
Malaysia	Mola
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 1
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	Tigo Sports+
Poland	Polsat Sport 3
Portugal	Sport TV1
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1 Premium
South-america	DGO Latin America
Spain	LaLiga+
Turkey	S Sport, S Sport+
Uruguay	DSports 1
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	DSports 1


	Lanús		Fluminense

	1	X	2
	2.4	2.7	3.6	Watch
	2.5	2.8	3.1
	2.52	2.72	3.15	Watch
	2.35	2.87	3.56
				Watch
	2.52	2.93	3.18	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.46 ↑ (2.3)	2.8 ↓ (3)	3.32 ↓ (3.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lanús
38.2%

Draw
33.5%

Fluminense
28.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.7%

31.3%

28%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42%

30.3%

27.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lanús has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Fluminense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lanús than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	50%	25%

Lanús - Fluminense Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Lanús will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Fluminense will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Fluminense (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Fluminense (2.24) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - draw (4.25) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

AH 0 - Lanús (1.64) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Lanús (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Fluminense (votes: 3 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Losada N. (G) 4. Perez G. 24. Izquierdoz C. (C) 13. Canale Dominguez J. 6. Marcich S. 39. Medina A. 30. Cardozo A. 36. Segovia A. 10. Marcelino Moreno 11. Salvio E. 19. Castillo R.	1. Fabio (G) 23. Guga 3. Thiago Silva (C) 22. Freytes J. 6. Rene 16. Nonato 35. Hercules 8. Martinelli 17. Canobbio A. 9. Everaldo 90. Serna K.
Substitutes
7. Acosta L. 25. Aquino D. 9. Bou W. 14. Canelo A. 37. De Martis T. 21. Mendez A. 17. Morales L. (G) 3. Morgantini N. 2. Munoz E. 22. Quiroz T. 50. Sanchez F. 8. Watson F. N.	5. Bernal F. 14. Cano G. 12. Fuentes G. 4. Ignacio 21. Igor Rabello 99. John Kennedy 46. Julio Fidelis 45. Lima 26. Manoel 28. Riquelme Felipe 7. Soteldo Y. 98. Vitor Eudes (G)
Coaches
Pellegrino M.	Renato Gaucho

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Segovia A. ↓, Aquino D. ↑,
49', Perez G. 🟨,
64', Perez G. ↓, Mendez A. ↑,
64', Castillo R. ↓, Bou W. ↑,
71', Serna K. ↓, Soteldo Y. ↑,
71', Martinelli ↓, Bernal F. ↑,
77', Bernal F. 🟨,
84', Guga ↓, Julio Fidelis ↑,
84', Nonato ↓, Acosta L. ↑,
85', Everaldo ↓, Cano G. ↑,
87', Bou W. 🟨,
89', 1 - 0, Marcelino Moreno ⚽,
90+2', Marcelino Moreno ↓, Watson F. N. ↑,
90+3', Medina A. 🟨,
90+3', Salvio E. ↓, Acosta L. ↑,

Preview

1st leg.

Recent performances by Lanús have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Fluminense is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Fluminense may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Lanús
Argentinian Liga Profesional
12.09.25	Lanús - Independiente Rivadavia	1:0 ✺
Copa Argentina
08.09.25	Argentinos Juniors - Lanús	1:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
30.08.25	Vélez Sársfield - Lanús	3:0 ✺
25.08.25	Lanús - River Plate	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
21.08.25	Lanús - Central Córdoba	2:0 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WLLTW
- Fluminense RJ
Brazilian Serie A
13.09.25	Fluminense - Corinthians	0:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
10.09.25	Fluminense - Bahia	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
31.08.25	Santos - Fluminense	0:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
28.08.25	Bahia - Fluminense	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
23.08.25	Red Bull Bragantino - Fluminense	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LWTLL

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