Match Info

NIFL Premiership - Relegation Group - Round 38

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Mourneview Park (Lurgan)

Referee: Robinson J. (Nir)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Glenavon		Carrick Rangers

	1	X	2
	2.65	3.4	2.35
	2.78	3.35	2.32
	2.81	3.66	2.35
	2.47	3.52	2.51	Watch
	2.8	3.3	2.15
	2.74	3.35	2.46
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.71 ↑ (2.63)	3.43 ↓ (3.59)	2.36 ↑ (2.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Glenavon
34%

Draw
26.9%

Carrick Rangers
39.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.9%

25.6%

39.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.3%

25.2%

40.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Glenavon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Carrick Rangers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Glenavon than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carrick Rangers than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Glenavon - Carrick Rangers Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Carrick Rangers will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Carney J. (G) 3. Burns P. 10. Campbell P. (C) 27. Carlin S. 18. Ferris N. 24. Harkin M. 17. Lowe K. 2. McMullan J. 4. Murphy H. 14. O'Kane O. 31. Quinn N.	33. Donnelly L. (G) 4. Burns B. 20. Cherry K. 23. Glendinning R. 22. Heatley P. 10. Lecky A. 29. McCawl E. 12. McCullough L. (C) 25. McKay R. 2. Place M. 24. Snoddy M.
Substitutes
28. Falls C. 23. Gilmore G. 21. Kee J. 30. Lindsay C. 29. McGovern P. 44. McShane C. 55. Pollock A.	6. Callacher J. 1. Gartside N. (G) 9. Gibson D. 35. Jeffers R. 40. Moore J. 14. Steele A. 7. Waide R.
Coaches
O'Connor M.	Baxter S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
26', Snoddy M. 🟨,
37', Cherry K. 🟨,
41', Donnelly L. 🟨,
42', 1 - 0, Burns P. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 3)
46', McCawl E. ↓, Moore J. ↑,
46', Cherry K. ↓, Steele A. ↑,
46', Burns B. ↓, Callacher J. ↑,
58', 1 - 1, Lecky A. ⚽,
66', Heatley P. ↓, Gibson D. ↑,
70', 🟨,
74', 1 - 2, Callacher J. ⚽,
79', Lecky A. ↓, Waide R. ↑,
85', 2 - 2, Pollock A. ⚽,
90+1', 2 - 3, Gibson D. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Glenavon won 3.

Glenavon is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Carrick Rangers is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Glenavon won 11 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 38:26. (average 1.9:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Glenavon won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:13. (average 1.7:1.4).

Outrights of Northern Irish Premiership for now

Carrick Rangers: 0.84%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Carrick Rangers	10	4	1	5	15:15	0	13

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Glenavon FC
Northern Irish Premiership
18.04.26	Glenavon - Crusaders	0:1 ✺
11.04.26	Bangor - Glenavon	0:0 ✺
07.04.26	Ballymena United - Glenavon	1:1 ✺
04.04.26	Glenavon - Portadown	1:1 ✺
20.03.26	Glenavon - Larne	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LTTTL
- Carrick Rangers
Northern Irish Premiership
18.04.26	Bangor - Carrick Rangers	0:3 ✺
11.04.26	Carrick Rangers - Ballymena United	2:3 ✺
07.04.26	Portadown - Carrick Rangers	1:1 ✺
28.03.26	Carrick Rangers - Crusaders	6:1 ✺
20.03.26	Carrick Rangers - Linfield	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Northern Irish Premiership
10.02.26	Carrick Rangers - Glenavon	2:1
18.10.25	Glenavon - Carrick Rangers	1:0
16.08.25	Carrick Rangers - Glenavon	1:0
26.04.25	Carrick Rangers - Glenavon	0:4
25.01.25	Glenavon - Carrick Rangers	2:1
26.10.24	Glenavon - Carrick Rangers	1:1
10.08.24	Carrick Rangers - Glenavon	2:0

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