The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Las Vegas Lights 48.1%
Draw 24.3%
New Mexico United 27.6%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
41.7%
26.9%
31.4%
Our Initial ML Estimation
42.4%
27.3%
30.9%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Las Vegas Lights has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Las Vegas Lights's performance.
New Mexico United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Las Vegas Lights than the current prediction. (-5.7%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Las Vegas Lights that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for New Mexico United than the current prediction. (+3.3%)
Las Vegas Lights - New Mexico United Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Henry T. (G) 6. Sessock N. 3. Jones N. 33. Guillen A. 81. Antonoglou T. 27. Probo G. 23. Ybarra M. 18. Locker C. 11. Pinzon C. (C) 14. Rodriguez J. 25. Anderson O.
13. Shakes K. (G) 24. Blackett T. 4. Keller K. 2. Hamalainen N. 3. Gloster C. 15. Jabang O. 19. Bailey Z. 7. Reid-Stephen N. 10. Hurst G. (C) 5. Harris D. 29. Archimede L.
Substitutes
9. Arteaga M. 13. Lanphier C. (G) 17. Leal P. 7. Mines B. 30. Ofeimu B. 43. Okyere A. 45. Pope B.
27. Howell M. 17. LaCava J. 31. Melto Quiah J. 11. Nava C. 33. Pannenberg A. (G) 9. Rennicks J. 6. Zelalem G.
Coaches
Rensing D.
Sanchez D.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 1)
29', 1 - 0, Anderson O. ⚽,
34', 1 - 1, Hurst G. ⚽,
44', Archimede L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
65', Archimede L. ↓, Zelalem G. ↑,
65', Reid-Stephen N. ↓, Nava C. ↑,
65', Harris D. ↓, Melto Quiah J. ↑,
67', Anderson O. ↓, Arteaga M. ↑,
67', Locker C. ↓, Okyere A. ↑,
79', 1 - 2, Keller K. ⚽, Hamalainen N. (A),
83', Ybarra M. ↓, Leal P. ↑,
85', Bailey Z. 🟨,
87', Shakes K. 🟨,
88', Hamalainen N. ↓, LaCava J. ↑,
89', Bailey Z. ↓, Howell M. ↑,
90', Rodriguez J. 🟨,
90+1', Guillen A. ↓, Ofeimu B. ↑,
90+1', Sessock N. ↓, Pope B. ↑,
90+5', Blackett T. 🟨,
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Las Vegas won 2.
In recent matches, Las Vegas has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
New Mexico is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Las Vegas may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
Las Vegas could have a small edge in this match.
In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Las Vegas won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 19:21. (average 1.6:1.8).
Including home matches between the teams, Las Vegas won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:8. (average 2:1.6).
Last Results with these Odds
Las Vegas Lights - the odds 2.23 are the expected chance of winning is 41.67%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.
New Mexico United - the odds 2.96 are the expected chance of winning is 31.39%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.
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Henry T. (G) 
Sessock N. 
Guillen A. 
Probo G. 
Anderson O. 
Blackett T. 
Hamalainen N. 
Bailey Z. 
Reid-Stephen N. 
Hurst G. (C) 
Harris D. 
Archimede L. 
Arteaga M. 
Okyere A. 
Howell M. 
Melto Quiah J. 
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