Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 26 August 2026, Wednesday

Location: Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park (Albuquerque, NM)

Referee: Hadzic A. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	fubo Sports Network
Mexico	Disney+
Usa	ESPN+, SportsEngine Play


	New Mexico United		Lexington

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.25	3.30	2.65
	2.52	3.3	2.45
	2.68	3.43	2.63
	2.59	3.37	2.59	Watch
	2.4	3.35	2.7
	2.44	3.22	2.57	Watch
	2.55	3.35	2.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.49 ↓ (2.63)	3.33 ↑ (3.3)	2.58 ↑ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

New Mexico United
36.9%

Draw
27.6%

Lexington
35.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34%

27.1%

38.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.7%

28.2%

40.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

New Mexico United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Lexington has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for New Mexico United than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lexington than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

New Mexico United - Lexington Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Shakes K. (G) 17. LaCava J. 4. Keller K. 2. Hamalainen N. 3. Gloster C. 15. Jabang O. 19. Bailey Z. 7. Reid-Stephen N. 9. Rennicks J. 5. Harris D. 10. Hurst G. (C)	17. Semmle O. (C) 12. Zengue X. 5. Burks K. 21. Muir M. 2. Greene J. 15. Okello N. 6. Molloy A. 34. Fry M. 8. Nick Firmino 7. Epps M. 19. Scott T.
Substitutes
29. Archimede L. 24. Blackett T. 18. Djeffal S. 11. Nava C. 33. Pannenberg A. (G) 28. Wilkerson C. 6. Zelalem G.	23. Brown J. 14. Caborn A. 16. Ferri B. 98. Seagrist P. 24. Stockton B. 31. Thompson B. (G) 20. Yosef M.
Coaches
Sanchez D.	Hemmi M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
10', Semmle O. 🟨,
29', Hurst G. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Fry M. ↓, Ferri B. ↑,
51', 0 - 1, Muir M. ⚽,
56', Scott T. ↓, Brown J. ↑,
63', Bailey Z. 🟨,
67', Jabang O. ↓, Zelalem G. ↑,
67', LaCava J. ↓, Wilkerson C. ↑,
67', Gloster C. ↓, Blackett T. ↑,
68', Blackett T. 🟨,
73', 1 - 1, Keller K. ⚽, Hurst G. (A),
75', Nick Firmino ↓, Seagrist P. ↑,
78', 2 - 1, Reid-Stephen N. ⚽, Harris D. (A),
82', Seagrist P. 🟨,
84', Zengue X. ↓, Yosef M. ↑,
85', Harris D. ↓, Nava C. ↑,
85', Hurst G. ↓, Archimede L. ↑,
90+4', Wilkerson C. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

New Mexico has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Lexington is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, New Mexico won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:4. (average 2.3:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, New Mexico won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- New Mexico United
USL Championship
22.08.26	Loudoun United - New Mexico United	0:0 ✺
15.08.26	New Mexico United - Tulsa	1:0 ✺
08.08.26	Monterey Bay - New Mexico United	2:5 ✺
01.08.26	New Mexico United - Colorado Springs Switchbacks	1:0 ✺
15.07.26	Lexington - New Mexico United	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.1 TWWWW
- Lexington SC
USL Championship
22.08.26	Lexington - Las Vegas Lights	2:0 ✺
15.08.26	Sacramento Republic - Lexington	1:0 ✺
08.08.26	Lexington - Phoenix Rising	1:0 ✺
01.08.26	Lexington - Monterey Bay	3:2 ✺
25.07.26	Tulsa - Lexington	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WLWWT

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
15.07.26	Lexington - New Mexico United	1:4
28.09.25	New Mexico United - Lexington	2:1
14.06.25	Lexington - New Mexico United	2:1

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