The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Loudoun United 41.6%
Draw 26.1%
New Mexico United 32.4%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
43.1%
26.1%
30.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
44%
26.6%
30.1%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Loudoun United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)
New Mexico United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Loudoun United than the current prediction. (+2.4%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for New Mexico United than the current prediction. (-2.3%)
Loudoun United - New Mexico United Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
41. Bandre E. (G) 7. Niyongabire P. 24. Erlandson J. (C) 5. Mazzaferro S. 6. Awuah K. 8. Murphy J. 21. Akinyode B. 10. Santos P. 11. Aboukoura A. 19. Aman R. 9. Davis III E.
13. Shakes K. (G) 17. LaCava J. 4. Keller K. 2. Hamalainen N. 3. Gloster C. 15. Jabang O. 19. Bailey Z. 7. Reid-Stephen N. 9. Rennicks J. 31. Melto Quiah J. 10. Hurst G. (C)
Substitutes
2. Adnan N. 38. Barrus L. 40. Conner R. (G) 18. Lomtadze G. 39. Marcos Dias 4. O'Connor A. 33. Piras L. 23. Watts A. 20. Young S.
29. Archimede L. 24. Blackett T. 5. Harris D. 11. Nava C. 33. Pannenberg A. (G) 28. Wilkerson C. 6. Zelalem G.
Coaches
Limbrick A.
Sanchez D.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
10', Melto Quiah J. 🟨,
31', Melto Quiah J. 🟨,
36', Santos P. ↓, Lomtadze G. ↑,
42', Akinyode B. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
58', Reid-Stephen N. ↓, Blackett T. ↑,
58', Rennicks J. ↓, Archimede L. ↑,
68', Hurst G. ↓, Nava C. ↑,
68', LaCava J. ↓, Wilkerson C. ↑,
71', Murphy J. ↓, Marcos Dias ↑,
76', Erlandson J. ↓, Watts A. ↑,
78', Awuah K. 🟨,
88', Shakes K. 🟨,
88', Sanchez D. 🟨,
90+2', Archimede L. 🟨,
Preview
Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 10 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).
Loudoun has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).
New Mexico is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).
Loudoun might have a minor edge in this game.
In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Loudoun won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:4. (average 0.7:1.3).
Including home match between the teams, Loudoun won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3.
Last Results with these Odds
New Mexico United - the odds 3 are the expected chance of winning is 30.71%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.