Match Info

Ligue 2 - Round 19

Date: 16 January 2026, Friday

Location: Stade Francis Le Basser (Laval)

Referee: Bollengier M. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Laval		Bastia

	1	X	2
	2.45	2.7	2.9	Watch
	2.45	2.82	3.1
	2.49	2.85	3.22	Watch
	2.45	2.75	3.1
	2.62	2.88	3.1	Watch
	2.45	2.85	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.49 ↑ (2.35)	2.81 ↓ (2.93)	3.1 ↓ (3.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Laval
37.2%

Draw
32.9%

Bastia
29.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.8%

31.9%

28.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.1%

32.9%

27.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Laval has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Bastia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Laval than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bastia than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
41.2%	52.9%	5.9%

Laval - Bastia Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Laval will win (votes: 7 - 43.8%). Bastia will win (votes: 1 - 6.3%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 25.5% – 74.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Laval (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Laval (1.69) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Laval (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Samassa M. (G) 23. Tavares Y. 4. Ouaneh P. 3. Bianda W. 35. Samb L. 34. Maddy E. 14. Mandouki C. 26. Benard W. 6. Sanna S. (C) 11. Dago T. 28. Maggiotti J.	30. Placide J. (G) 15. Bohnert F. 4. Roncaglia A. 6. Guidi D. (C) 5. Ariss Z. 13. Ducrocq T. 66. Janneh J. 18. Zaouai A. 25. Aiki A. 14. Sebas J. 9. Tomi F.
Substitutes
21. Aradj Y. 9. Camara M. 20. Clavreul E. 1. Hautbois M. (G) 10. Sellouki M. 18. Tchokounte M. 7. Vargas T.	28. Akueson G. 27. Beltaief Z. 23. Fabri J. (G) 35. Lebas da Silva V. 24. Meynadier T. 33. Petrignani M. 7. Vincent C.
Coaches
Frapolli O.	Ray R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
10', Sebas J. 🟨,
41', Mandouki C. 🟨,
43', Sanna S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
48', Zaouai A. 🟨,
62', 0 - 1, Sebas J. ⚽, Zaouai A. (A),
68', Maggiotti J. ↓, Camara M. ↑,
68', Maddy E. ↓, Clavreul E. ↑,
68', Mandouki C. ↓, Vargas T. ↑,
70', Aiki A. ↓, Meynadier T. ↑,
71', Camara M. 🟨,
75', Tavares Y. ↓, Tchokounte M. ↑,
76', 0 - 2, Tomi F. ⚽,
80', Dago T. ↓, Sellouki M. ↑,
82', Sebas J. ↓, Vincent C. ↑,
85', Bianda W. 🟨,
90+1', Tomi F. ↓, Lebas da Silva V. ↑,
90+5', Clavreul E. 🟨,
90+5', Meynadier T. 🟨,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ National and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ National).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Laval won 2.

Laval has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Bastia is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Laval has had a series of away games.

Laval could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Laval: Commaret M. (Muscle Injury) Thomas T. (Hand Injury)

There will not play in Bastia: Akueson G. (Knee Injury) Bathily Y. (Injury) Djedje D. (Injury) Guevara J. (Yellow Cards) Parravicini N. (Hernia) Zilliox N. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Laval: Maggiotti J. (Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Laval won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 16:16. (average 1.6:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Laval won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:6. (average 1.3:1.5).

Outrights of French Ligue 2 for now

Laval: 0.42%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
18	Laval	7	1	2	4	8:14	-6	5

Last Results with these Odds

Laval - the odds 2.35 are the expected chance of winning is 39.77%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stade Laval
Coupe De France
10.01.26	Istres - Laval	0:2 ✺
French Ligue 2
03.01.26	Clermont - Laval	4:1 ✺
Coupe De France
19.12.25	Guingamp - Laval	0:1 ✺
French Ligue 2
12.12.25	Laval - Dunkerque	1:2 ✺
08.12.25	Reims - Laval	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WLWLL
- SC Bastia
Coupe De France
10.01.26	Bastia - Troyes	0:2 ✺
French Ligue 2
03.01.26	Bastia - Grenoble	1:0 ✺
Coupe De France
20.12.25	Pontivy - Bastia	0:1 ✺
French Ligue 2
13.12.25	Saint-Étienne - Bastia	2:2 ✺
05.12.25	Bastia - Red Star	Abandoned ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 LWWT?

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
25.11.25	Bastia - Laval	0:2
14.04.25	Bastia - Laval	5:2
08.11.24	Laval - Bastia	2:2
30.03.24	Laval - Bastia	1:2
16.09.23	Bastia - Laval	0:3
06.05.23	Laval - Bastia	2:1
30.07.22	Bastia - Laval	0:2

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