Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 22

Date: 15 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Stade Océane (Le Havre)

Referee: Brisard J. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Croatia	Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 5, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Israel	5 PLUS Israel
Italy	Ligue 1+
Japan	DAZN Japan
Mexico	FOX One, Fox Sports
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 1x2
Slovakia	Nova Sport 5, Voyo
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	DAZN, Ligue 1+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	ON Plus, TV 360
World	Onefootball


	Le Havre		Toulouse

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.2	2.4	Watch
	3.2	3.2	2.32	Watch
	3.19	3.27	2.47
	3.07	3.23	2.4	Watch
	3	3	2.38
	3.25	3.27	2.49	Watch
	3.1	3.2	2.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.13 ↓ (3.43)	3.2 ↓ (3.26)	2.41 ↑ (2.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Le Havre
30.5%

Draw
29.9%

Toulouse
39.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.5%

29%

43.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.6%

29.1%

43.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Le Havre has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Toulouse has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Le Havre than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	18.7%	56.2%

Le Havre - Toulouse Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Le Havre will win (votes: 4 - 25%). Toulouse will win (votes: 9 - 56.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 18.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Toulouse: 32% – 80.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Toulouse (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Toulouse (1.39) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Le Havre (1.59) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Le Havre (votes: 1 - 25%). Toulouse (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Diaw M. (G) 93. Sangante A. (C) 29. Zagadou S. 4. Lloris G. 7. Nego L. 19. Gourna-Douath L. 26. Ebonog S. 18. Zouaoui Y. 14. Ndiaye R. 45. Soumare I. 17. Boufal S.	1. Restes G. (G) 2. Nicolaisen R. (C) 4. Cresswell C. 3. McKenzie M. 22. Messali R. 23. Casseres C. 18. Demba P. 19. Sidibe D. 10. Gboho Y. 15. Donnum A. 20. Emersonn
Substitutes
13. Doucoure F. 8. Kechta Y. 11. Kyeremeh G. 78. Mosengo D. N. 77. Mpasi-Nzau L. (G) 20. Obougou N. 32. Pembele T. 33. Quetant K. 25. Samatta A.	16. Haug K. (G) 11. Hidalgo S. 12. Kamanzi W. 35. Koumbassa S. 24. Methalie D. 13. Russell-Rowe J. 40. Said Mchindra N. (G) 77. Sauer M. 7. Vignolo J.
Coaches
Digard D.	Martinez C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
2', Sangante A. 🟥,
30', Messali R. ↓, Hidalgo S. ↑,
43', 1 - 0, Soumare I. ⚽,
45+3', 1 - 1, Sidibe D. ⚽, Cresswell C. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Diaw M. ↓, Mpasi-Nzau L. ↑,
49', Casseres C. 🟨,
53', 2 - 1, Soumare I. ⚽, Boufal S. (A),
54', Restes G. 🟨,
55', Ebonog S. 🟨,
62', Casseres C. ↓, Sauer M. ↑,
62', Nicolaisen R. ↓, Methalie D. ↑,
62', Emersonn ↓, Russell-Rowe J. ↑,
65', Boufal S. ↓, Mosengo D. N. ↑,
65', Ebonog S. ↓, Samatta A. ↑,
70', Methalie D. 🟨,
83', Sidibe D. ↓, Vignolo J. ↑,
84', Zagadou S. ↓, Pembele T. ↑,
88', Hidalgo S. 🟨,
90+5', Ndiaye R. ↓, Kechta Y. ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 13 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Le Havre won 2.

Recent performances by Le Havre have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Toulouse is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Le Havre may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Le Havre: Seko A. (Ribs Injury) Toure A. (Knee Injury) Youte Kinkoue E. (Health problems)

There will not play in Toulouse: Azizi I. (Knee Injury) Francis A. (Broken Leg)

There are questionable in Le Havre: Vinette E. K. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Toulouse: Dominguez A. (Inactive) Magri F. (Knee Injury) Vossah A. (Inactive)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Le Havre won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 8:17. (average 0.9:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Le Havre won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:6. (average 0.8:1.5).

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Toulouse: 0.44% Le Havre: 0.16%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Toulouse	6	1	3	2	9:11	-2	6
18	Le Havre	6	0	2	4	4:8	-4	2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Le Havre AC
French Ligue 1
08.02.26	Le Havre - Strasbourg	2:1 ✺
30.01.26	Lens - Le Havre	1:0 ✺
24.01.26	Le Havre - Monaco	0:0 ✺
18.01.26	Rennes - Le Havre	1:1 ✺
04.01.26	Le Havre - Angers	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18 WLTTW
- Toulouse FC
French Ligue 1
08.02.26	Angers - Toulouse	1:0 ✺
Coupe De France
04.02.26	Toulouse - Amiens	1:0 ✺
French Ligue 1
01.02.26	Toulouse - Auxerre	0:0 ✺
25.01.26	Brest - Toulouse	0:2 ✺
17.01.26	Toulouse - Nice	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LWTWW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
02.11.25	Toulouse - Le Havre	0:0
23.02.25	Le Havre - Toulouse	1:4
15.09.24	Toulouse - Le Havre	2:0
10.03.24	Le Havre - Toulouse	1:0
05.11.23	Toulouse - Le Havre	1:2
French Ligue 2
21.02.22	Toulouse - Le Havre	4:0
13.09.21	Le Havre - Toulouse	1:1

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