Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 18

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadium de Toulouse (Toulouse)

Referee: Angoula G. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Toulouse		Nice

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.4	3.9	Watch
	1.98	3.55	3.7	Watch
	1.91	3.61	3.94	Watch
	1.95	3.3	3.6
	2.02	3.68	4.02	Watch
	1.94	3.5	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↑ (1.89)	3.51 ↓ (3.57)	3.86 ↓ (3.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toulouse
48.4%

Draw
27%

Nice
24.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.7%

26.3%

24%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.4%

25.9%

23.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toulouse has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Nice has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nice than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
64.7%	14.7%	20.6%

Toulouse - Nice Predictions

Users Predictions: 34 users predict this event. Toulouse will win (votes: 22 - 64.7%). Nice will win (votes: 7 - 20.6%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 14.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Toulouse: 48.6% – 80.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Toulouse (votes: 8 - 72.7%). Nice (votes: 2 - 18.2%). Tie (votes: 1 - 9.1%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Nice (1.85) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Nice (2.77) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Toulouse (votes: 8 - 57.1%). Nice (votes: 5 - 35.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 7.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Restes G. (G) 19. Sidibe D. 4. Cresswell C. 2. Nicolaisen R. (C) 15. Donnum A. 18. Demba P. 45. Vossah A. 22. Messali R. 9. Magri F. 11. Hidalgo S. 10. Gboho Y.	31. Dupe M. (G) 92. Clauss J. 28. Bah J. 36. Mantsounga B. 26. Bard M. 41. Pereira E. 20. Louchet T. 8. Sanson M. (C) 22. Ndombele T. 21. Jansson I. 11. Wahi E.
Substitutes
44. Bakhouche Piernas G. 23. Casseres C. 31. Edjouma N. 16. Haug K. (G) 12. Kamanzi W. 35. Koumbassa S. 77. Sauer M. 8. Schmidt N. 7. Vignolo J.	2. Abdi A. 99. Abdul Samed S. 25. Cho M. 44. Diallo Z. 47. Gouveia T. 90. Kevin 37. Peprah K. 24. Vanhoutte C. 30. Zelazowski B. (G)
Coaches
Martinez C.	Puel C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Hidalgo S. ⚽, Donnum A. (A),
40', Bah J. 🟨,
45', 2 - 0, Magri F. ⚽, Gboho Y. (A),
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', Ndombele T. ↓, Gouveia T. ↑,
46', Jansson I. ↓, Cho M. ↑,
49', 2 - 1, Wahi E. ⚽,
51', Sanson M. 🟨,
55', 3 - 1, Hidalgo S. ⚽, Magri F. (A),
56', Vossah A. ↓, Casseres C. ↑,
61', Hidalgo S. 🟨,
67', Pereira E. ↓, Kevin ↑,
70', Bard M. ↓, Abdi A. ↑,
74', 4 - 1, Casseres C. ⚽,
75', Hidalgo S. ↓, Vignolo J. ↑,
80', 5 - 1, Vignolo J. ⚽,
82', Nicolaisen R. ↓, Koumbassa S. ↑,
82', Magri F. ↓, Edjouma N. ↑,
82', Demba P. ↓, Sauer M. ↑,
82', Wahi E. ↓, Vanhoutte C. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 8 and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toulouse won 2.

Toulouse is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Nice has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Nice may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Toulouse might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Toulouse: Azizi I. (Knee Injury) Emersonn (Red Card) Francis A. (Broken Leg)

There will not play in Nice: Abdelmonem M. (Knee Injury) Bombito M. (Leg Injury) Diouf Y. (International duty) Mendy A. (International duty) Ndayishimiye Y. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Toulouse: Methalie D. (Knee Injury) Nicolaisen R. (Injury)

There are questionable in Nice: Diop S. (Injury) Peprah K. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toulouse won 7 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 20:21. (average 1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Toulouse won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:10. (average 1.4:1).

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Nice: 0.53% Toulouse: 0.42%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Toulouse	5	1	2	2	7:9	-2	5
15	Nice	5	1	2	2	3:6	-3	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Toulouse FC
Coupe De France
10.01.26	Angers - Toulouse	1:2 penalties ✺
French Ligue 1
02.01.26	Toulouse - Lens	0:3 ✺
Coupe De France
20.12.25	Lyon La Duchère - Toulouse	1:2 ✺
French Ligue 1
13.12.25	Paris FC - Toulouse	0:3 ✺
06.12.25	Toulouse - Strasbourg	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WLWWW
- OGC Nice
Coupe De France
11.01.26	Nantes - Nice	1:2 penalties ✺
French Ligue 1
03.01.26	Nice - Strasbourg	1:1 ✺
Coupe De France
21.12.25	Nice - Saint-Étienne	2:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
14.12.25	Lens - Nice	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
11.12.25	Nice - Braga	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WTWLL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
16.08.25	Nice - Toulouse	0:1
02.02.25	Toulouse - Nice	1:1
25.08.24	Nice - Toulouse	1:1
03.03.24	Toulouse - Nice	2:1
26.11.23	Nice - Toulouse	1:0
21.05.23	Nice - Toulouse	0:0
07.08.22	Toulouse - Nice	1:1

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