Match Info

Ligue 2 - Round 3

Date: 22 August 2025, Friday

Location: Stade Marie-Marvingt (Le Mans)

Referee: Bouille T. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5, Free


	Le Mans		Bastia

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.1	2.45	Watch
	2.55	3.1	2.75
	2.68	3.05	2.62
	2.88	3.11	2.69
	2.67	3.17	2.63	Watch
	2.5	3	2.75
	2.73	3.2	2.66	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.65 ↑ (2.29)	3.1 ↓ (3.31)	2.65 ↓ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Le Mans
35%

Draw
29.9%

Bastia
35%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.3%

27.9%

31.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Le Mans has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Le Mans's form might have worsened.

Bastia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	33.3%	44.4%

Le Mans - Bastia Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Le Mans will win (votes: 4 - 22.2%). Bastia will win (votes: 8 - 44.4%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bastia: 21.4% – 67.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Bastia (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bastia will win (6 of 8 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Bastia (votes: 7 - 77.8%). Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
98. Kocik N. (G) 21. Eyoum T. 17. Yohou S. (C) 5. Voyer H. 8. Lauray A. 12. Ribelin A. 11. Abanda L. 10. Vercruysse J. 23. Luvambo T. 25. Gueye D. 27. Rossignol M.	30. Placide J. (G) 15. Bohnert F. 6. Guidi D. (C) 4. Roncaglia A. 17. Ariss Z. 29. Etoga L. 66. Janneh J. 10. Boutrah A. 9. Tomi F. 25. Ble M. 14. Sebas J.
Substitutes
22. Calodat L. 20. Harhouz W. 1. Hatfout E. (G) 26. Oggad B. 6. Quarshie E. 9. Rabillard A. 24. Robin M.	22. Aiki A. 28. Akueson G. 8. Karamoko I. 24. Meynadier T. 1. Olmeta L. (G) 19. Parravicini N. 7. Vincent C.
Coaches
Videira P.	Tavenot B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
25', Ribelin A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Luvambo T. ↓, Harhouz W. ↑,
60', Tomi F. ↓, Vincent C. ↑,
61', Ble M. ↓, Parravicini N. ↑,
64', Guidi D. 🟨,
65', Vercruysse J. ↓, Quarshie E. ↑,
65', Abanda L. ↓, Calodat L. ↑,
65', Rossignol M. ↓, Robin M. ↑,
76', Bohnert F. ↓, Meynadier T. ↑,
76', Sebas J. ↓, Karamoko I. ↑,
77', Robin M. 🟨,
81', Ribelin A. ↓, Oggad B. ↑,
84', Yohou S. 🟨,
88', Parravicini N. 🟨,
90+3', 1 - 0, Gueye D. (Pen),
90+8', Janneh J. ↓, Aiki A. ↑,

Preview

Le Mans is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Bastia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Le Mans: Colas E. (Back Injury) Guillaume B. (Inactive)

There will not play in Bastia: Akueson G. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Ducrocq T. (Red Card) Guevara J. (Knee Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Le Mans won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 2:6. (average 0.5:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Le Mans won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Le Mans FC
French Ligue 2
18.08.25	Le Mans - Montpellier	1:2 ✺
09.08.25	Guingamp - Le Mans	3:3 ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.25	Le Mans - Caen	2:0 ✺
23.07.25	Quevilly - Le Mans	2:4 ✺
19.07.25	Le Havre - Le Mans	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.4 LTWWW
- SC Bastia
French Ligue 2
15.08.25	Bastia - Pau	1:1 ✺
10.05.25	Bastia - Caen	2:1 ✺
02.05.25	Guingamp - Bastia	2:2 ✺
25.04.25	Bastia - Grenoble	2:3 ✺
19.04.25	Paris FC - Bastia	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 TWTLL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 3
08.02.21	Bastia - Le Mans	1:0
07.09.20	Le Mans - Bastia	1:3
Coupe De France
17.11.18	Bastia - Le Mans	2:1
French Ligue 2
04.05.12	Le Mans - Bastia	N/A

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