Match Info

Ligue 2 - Round 33

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Stade de Roudourou (Guingamp)

Referee: Rosier E. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 8, Free


	Guingamp		Bastia

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.1	2.88	Watch
	2.3	3.25	2.95
	2.3	3.25	2.92
	2.39	3.56	2.92
	2.36	3.49	2.78	Watch
	2.3	3.3	2.8
	2.34	3.48	2.84	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↑ (2.18)	3.35 ↓ (3.38)	2.87 ↓ (3.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Guingamp
39.9%

Draw
27.7%

Bastia
32.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.8%

27.6%

29.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.4%

27.3%

29.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Guingamp has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Bastia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guingamp than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bastia than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55%	10%	35%

Guingamp - Bastia Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Guingamp will win (votes: 11 - 55%). Bastia will win (votes: 7 - 35%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Guingamp: 33.2% – 76.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Guingamp (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Bastia (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Ortola A. (G) 3. Matumona J. 36. Demouchy A. 18. Nair S. 29. Abdallah A. 11. Sagna A. 4. Louiserre D. (C) 39. Ahile T. 8. Sidibe K. 9. Mafouta L. 27. Kielt S.	1. Olmeta L. (G) 24. Meynadier T. 6. Guidi D. (C) 28. Akueson G. 66. Janneh J. 5. Ariss Z. 17. Eickmayer J. 13. Ducrocq T. 18. Zaouai A. 9. Tomi F. 33. Beliandjou R.
Substitutes
1. Bartouche-Selbonne T. (G) 21. Demoncy Y. 2. Koffi E. 37. Matondo T. 17. Mbemba F. 34. Njoya Y. 22. Sissoko A.	15. Bohnert F. 10. Boutrah A. 16. Contena S. (G) 8. Karamoko I. 4. Roncaglia A. 14. Sebas J. 7. Vincent C.
Coaches
Ripoll S.	Ray R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
44', Nair S. ↓, Sissoko A. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
51', 0 - 1, Beliandjou R. ⚽, Ariss Z. (A),
60', Sagna A. ↓, Mbemba F. ↑,
60', Matumona J. ↓, Koffi E. ↑,
61', Sidibe K. ↓, Demoncy Y. ↑,
69', Ahile T. ↓, Njoya Y. ↑,
72', Eickmayer J. ↓, Bohnert F. ↑,
72', Beliandjou R. ↓, Sebas J. ↑,
85', Zaouai A. ↓, Boutrah A. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 11 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ National).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Guingamp won 1.

Guingamp has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Bastia has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Bastia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Guingamp: Gomis D. (Inactive) Hatchi J. (Inactive) Hemia A. (Knee Injury) Koffi E. (Inactive) N'Landu D. (Knee Injury) Njoya Y. (Inactive) Ott G. (Knee Injury) Planeix I. (Inactive)

There will not play in Bastia: Bathily Y. (Injury) Djedje D. (Injury) Guevara J. (Yellow Cards) Merghem M. (Red Card) Parravicini N. (Hernia) Placide J. (Injury) Vincent C. (Injury)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Guingamp won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 24:22. (average 1.3:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Guingamp won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:8. (average 1.6:1).

Outrights of French Ligue 2 for now

Guingamp: 2.2%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Guingamp	7	2	2	3	10:12	-2	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EA Guingamp
French Ligue 2
24.04.26	Red Star - Guingamp	3:2 ✺
17.04.26	Pau - Guingamp	2:1 ✺
10.04.26	Guingamp - Grenoble	1:1 ✺
03.04.26	Annecy - Guingamp	1:0 ✺
21.03.26	Guingamp - Reims	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLTLL
- SC Bastia
French Ligue 2
24.04.26	Clermont - Bastia	1:1 ✺
18.04.26	Bastia - Saint-Étienne	2:0 ✺
11.04.26	Red Star - Bastia	4:3 ✺
03.04.26	Bastia - Amiens	1:1 ✺
20.03.26	Rodez - Bastia	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 TWLTT

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
30.08.25	Bastia - Guingamp	1:3
02.05.25	Guingamp - Bastia	2:2
13.12.24	Bastia - Guingamp	3:1
20.04.24	Guingamp - Bastia	0:1
28.10.23	Bastia - Guingamp	0:0
18.02.23	Bastia - Guingamp	1:1
22.10.22	Guingamp - Bastia	1:1

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