Match Info

Ligue 2 - Round 24

Date: 23 February 2026, Monday

Location: Stade Marie-Marvingt (Le Mans)

Where to Watch on TV:


Andorra	beIN Sports 1
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, beIN Sports MENA French 1, TOD
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Free


	Le Mans		Guingamp

	1	X	2
	2.6	3.1	2.5	Watch
	2.5	3.25	2.75
	2.62	3.1	2.62	Watch
	2.46	3.2	2.99
	2.73	3.06	2.69	Watch
	2.7	2.9	2.7
	2.72	3.02	2.68	Watch
	2.33	3.14	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.58 ↑ (2.41)	3.1 ↓ (3.35)	2.74 ↓ (2.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Le Mans
36%

Draw
30%

Guingamp
33.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.7%

27.8%

33.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.8%

27.7%

33.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Le Mans has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Guingamp has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Le Mans than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guingamp than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
46.7%	40%	13.3%

Le Mans - Guingamp Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Le Mans will win (votes: 7 - 46.7%). Guingamp will win (votes: 2 - 13.3%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Le Mans: 21.5% – 71.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.25 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Le Mans (1.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Le Mans (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
98. Kocik N. (G) 12. Ribelin A. 31. Boisse N. 17. Yohou S. (C) 3. Cossier I. 22. Calodat L. 11. Bourabaa A. 8. Lauray A. 24. Robin M. 9. Rabillard A. 25. Gueye D.	16. Ortola A. (G) 22. Sissoko A. 7. Gomis D. 18. Nair S. 29. Abdallah A. 11. Sagna A. 4. Louiserre D. (C) 8. Sidibe K. 17. Mbemba F. 21. Demoncy Y. 9. Mafouta L.
Substitutes
29. Bretelle L. 28. Colas E. 26. Hamdi M. 20. Harhouz W. 1. Hatfout E. (G) 27. Rossignol M. 5. Voyer H.	39. Ahile T. 1. Bartouche-Selbonne T. (G) 36. Demouchy A. 20. Hatchi J. 27. Kielt S. 2. Koffi E. 34. Njoya Y.
Coaches
Videira P.	Ripoll S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
29', 1 - 0, Gueye D. ⚽, Rabillard A. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Robin M. ↓, Bretelle L. ↑,
53', Kocik N. 🟨,
53', Sidibe K. 🟨,
53', 1 - 1, Sidibe K. ⚽, Mafouta L. (A),
59', Mbemba F. ↓, Hatchi J. ↑,
59', Gueye D. ↓, Colas E. ↑,
60', Rabillard A. ↓, Harhouz W. ↑,
66', Demoncy Y. ↓, Kielt S. ↑,
71', Bourabaa A. ↓, Rossignol M. ↑,
84', Yohou S. 🟨,
86', Rossignol M. 🟨,
90+5', Gomis D. ↓, Demouchy A. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Le Mans won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Le Mans won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:17. (average 1.3:2.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Le Mans won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 1.3:1.3).

Outrights of French Ligue 2 for now

Guingamp: 2.2%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Guingamp	7	2	2	3	10:12	-2	8

Last Results with these Odds

Guingamp - the odds 2.79 are the expected chance of winning is 33.44%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Le Mans FC
French Ligue 2
14.02.26	Montpellier - Le Mans	4:2 ✺
07.02.26	Le Mans - Laval	1:1 ✺
Coupe De France
03.02.26	Reims - Le Mans	3:0 ✺
French Ligue 2
31.01.26	Troyes - Le Mans	0:2 ✺
26.01.26	Le Mans - Dunkerque	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 LTLWW
- EA Guingamp
French Ligue 2
14.02.26	Guingamp - Saint-Étienne	1:2 ✺
06.02.26	Dunkerque - Guingamp	0:0 ✺
30.01.26	Montpellier - Guingamp	3:1 ✺
24.01.26	Guingamp - Troyes	1:0 ✺
19.01.26	Nancy - Guingamp	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 LTLWW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
09.08.25	Guingamp - Le Mans	3:3
Club Friendly
13.07.24	Le Mans - Guingamp	2:1
French Ligue 2
28.02.20	Le Mans - Guingamp	2:1
30.09.19	Guingamp - Le Mans	3:0
19.04.13	Guingamp - Le Mans	6:1
23.11.12	Le Mans - Guingamp	0:2
01.05.12	Guingamp - Le Mans	1:1

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