Match Info

Ligue 2 - Round 23

Date: 14 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Stade de la Mosson (Montpellier)

Referee: Souifi A. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Andorra	beIN Sports 1
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 5
Canada	beIN Connect
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Free
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Japan	DAZN Japan
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Serbia	Arena Sport 1
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz


	Montpellier		Le Mans

	1	X	2
	2.2	2.9	3.3	Watch
	2.32	2.98	3.15	Watch
	2.33	3.14	3.43
	2.29	3.14	3.24	Watch
	2.3	2.9	3.3
	2.32	3	3.31	Watch
	2.33	3	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.3 ↑ (2.26)	3.01 ↓ (3.12)	3.28 ↑ (3.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Montpellier
40.6%

Draw
31%

Le Mans
28.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.2%

29.8%

28.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.5%

30%

28.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montpellier has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Le Mans has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montpellier than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Le Mans than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	35.7%	21.4%

Montpellier - Le Mans Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Montpellier will win (votes: 6 - 42.9%). Le Mans will win (votes: 3 - 21.4%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 35.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Montpellier: 17% – 68.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Le Mans (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 4 - 80%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.25 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Ngapandouetnbu S. (G) 29. Tchato E. 15. Laporte J. (C) 6. Jullien C. 17. Sainte-Luce T. 77. Junior Pereira da Silva E. 18. Pays N. 44. Chennahi T. 7. Mbuku N. 8. Issoufou Y. 19. Mendy A.	98. Kocik N. (G) 21. Eyoum T. 17. Yohou S. 3. Cossier I. 18. Buades L. 8. Lauray A. 6. Quarshie E. (C) 22. Calodat L. 11. Bourabaa A. 28. Colas E. 9. Rabillard A.
Substitutes
10. Fayad K. 20. Homssa N. 1. Michel M. (G) 21. Mincarelli L. 14. Molebe E. 11. Savanier T. 28. Sishuba A.	29. Bretelle L. 25. Gueye D. 20. Harhouz W. 1. Hatfout E. (G) 12. Ribelin A. 27. Rossignol M. 5. Voyer H.
Coaches
Camara Z.	Videira P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
10', 0 - 1, Buades L. ⚽, Colas E. (A),
45+1', 1 - 1, Jullien C. ⚽, Mbuku N. (A),
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', Buades L. ↓, Ribelin A. ↑,
50', 2 - 1, Pays N. ⚽,
60', 3 - 1, Issoufou Y. ⚽, Pays N. (A),
61', Quarshie E. ↓, Rossignol M. ↑,
61', Rabillard A. ↓, Gueye D. ↑,
67', Lauray A. 🟨,
71', Mbuku N. ↓, Sishuba A. ↑,
71', Bourabaa A. ↓, Harhouz W. ↑,
71', Lauray A. ↓, Bretelle L. ↑,
82', Issoufou Y. ↓, Savanier T. ↑,
83', Pays N. ↓, Molebe E. ↑,
84', 4 - 1, Mendy A. ⚽, Chennahi T. (A),
87', 4 - 2, Gueye D. ⚽, Harhouz W. (A),
90+6', Calodat L. 🟨,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 11 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Le Mans may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Montpellier has had a series of away games.

Montpellier will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Montpellier: El Hannach N. (Yellow Cards) Mouanga Y. (Injury) Ngosso G. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Le Mans: Gomes M. (Ankle Injury) Harhouz W. (Leg Injury) Ribelin A. (Inactive) Robin M. (Injury) Vercruysse J. (Knee Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Montpellier won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Outrights of French Ligue 2 for now

Montpellier: 4.46%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Montpellier	7	3	3	1	6:5	1	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Montpellier HSC
French Ligue 2
07.02.26	Saint-Étienne - Montpellier	1:0 ✺
Coupe De France
04.02.26	Nice - Montpellier	3:2 ✺
French Ligue 2
30.01.26	Montpellier - Guingamp	3:1 ✺
23.01.26	Bastia - Montpellier	0:2 ✺
16.01.26	Boulogne - Montpellier	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LLWWL
- Le Mans FC
French Ligue 2
07.02.26	Le Mans - Laval	1:1 ✺
Coupe De France
03.02.26	Reims - Le Mans	3:0 ✺
French Ligue 2
31.01.26	Troyes - Le Mans	0:2 ✺
26.01.26	Le Mans - Dunkerque	1:0 ✺
16.01.26	Rodez - Le Mans	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 TLWWT

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
18.08.25	Le Mans - Montpellier	1:2

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