Match Info

Ligue 2 - Round 21

Date: 30 January 2026, Friday

Location: Stade de la Mosson (Montpellier)

Referee: Roffet B. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4, Free


	Montpellier		Guingamp

	1	X	2
	2.3	3	2.8	Watch
	2.15	3.3	3.2
	2.38	3.05	2.98	Watch
	2.47	3.26	3.06
	2.35	3.21	3.07	Watch
	2.4	3	2.9
	2.46	3.21	2.99	Watch
	2.4	3.14	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.36 ↑ (2.21)	3.15 ↓ (3.18)	3 ↓ (3.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Montpellier
39.4%

Draw
29.6%

Guingamp
31%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.9%

29.1%

29%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.5%

28%

27.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montpellier has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Guingamp has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montpellier than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guingamp than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
61.1%	16.7%	22.2%

Montpellier - Guingamp Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Montpellier will win (votes: 11 - 61.1%). Guingamp will win (votes: 4 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Montpellier: 38.6% – 83.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Montpellier (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Ngapandouetnbu S. (G) 29. Tchato E. 15. Laporte J. 23. Mouanga Y. 21. Mincarelli L. 27. Omeragic B. (C) 18. Pays N. 44. Chennahi T. 7. Mbuku N. 8. Issoufou Y. 19. Mendy A.	16. Ortola A. (G) 22. Sissoko A. 7. Gomis D. 18. Nair S. 29. Abdallah A. 11. Sagna A. 8. Sidibe K. 4. Louiserre D. (C) 24. Ott G. 21. Demoncy Y. 9. Mafouta L.
Substitutes
3. El Hannach N. 10. Fayad K. 6. Jullien C. 77. Junior Pereira da Silva E. 1. Michel M. (G) 14. Orakpo V. 28. Sishuba A.	39. Ahile T. 1. Bartouche-Selbonne T. (G) 36. Demouchy A. 20. Hatchi J. 2. Koffi E. 19. Matondo J. 34. Njoya Y.
Coaches
Camara Z.	Ripoll S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
7', Mbuku N. 🟨,
15', Mouanga Y. ↓, Junior Pereira da Silva E. ↑,
18', 0 - 1, Mafouta L. ⚽, Ott G. (A),
21', Abdallah A. 🟨,
42', 1 - 1, Junior Pereira da Silva E. ⚽, Mbuku N. (A),
45', Laporte J. 🟨,
45+2', Ott G. ↓, Hatchi J. ↑,
45+5', Nair S. 🟨,
45+7', 2 - 1, Mendy A. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Mincarelli L. ↓, El Hannach N. ↑,
64', El Hannach N. 🟨,
73', Hatchi J. 🟨,
74', Mbuku N. ↓, Fayad K. ↑,
79', Sissoko A. 🟨,
80', 3 - 1, Mendy A. (Penalty Awarded),
80', Pays N. ↓, Sishuba A. ↑,
81', Issoufou Y. ↓, Jullien C. ↑,
81', Louiserre D. ↓, Ahile T. ↑,
81', Demoncy Y. ↓, Njoya Y. ↑,
82', Gomis D. 🟨,
90+1', Sissoko A. ↓, Koffi E. ↑,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 9 and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Montpellier won 1.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Recently, Montpellier has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Montpellier: Ngosso G. (Knee Injury) Sainte-Luce T. (Injury)

There will not play in Guingamp: Hemia A. (Knee Injury) Matumona J. (Red Card) Mbemba F. (Red Card) N'Landu D. (Knee Injury) Planeix I. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Guingamp: Sidibe K. (Injury)

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Montpellier won 6 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 19:11. (average 1.4:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Montpellier won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:5. (average 1.5:0.8).

Outrights of French Ligue 2 for now

Montpellier: 4.46% Guingamp: 2.2%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Montpellier	7	3	3	1	6:5	1	12
11	Guingamp	7	2	2	3	10:12	-2	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Montpellier HSC
French Ligue 2
23.01.26	Bastia - Montpellier	0:2 ✺
16.01.26	Boulogne - Montpellier	1:0 ✺
Coupe De France
11.01.26	Metz - Montpellier	0:4 ✺
French Ligue 2
05.01.26	Montpellier - Dunkerque	1:3 ✺
Coupe De France
19.12.25	Canet Roussillon - Montpellier	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 WLWLW
- EA Guingamp
French Ligue 2
24.01.26	Guingamp - Troyes	1:0 ✺
19.01.26	Nancy - Guingamp	0:3 ✺
03.01.26	Guingamp - Boulogne	3:0 ✺
Coupe De France
19.12.25	Guingamp - Laval	0:1 ✺
French Ligue 2
12.12.25	Rodez - Guingamp	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
15.09.25	Guingamp - Montpellier	1:0
French Ligue 1
03.04.19	Montpellier - Guingamp	2:0
06.10.18	Guingamp - Montpellier	1:1
17.02.18	Montpellier - Guingamp	1:1
29.11.17	Guingamp - Montpellier	0:0
French Coupe de la Ligue
24.10.17	Guingamp - Montpellier	0:2
French Ligue 1
04.03.17	Montpellier - Guingamp	1:1

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