Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 4

Date: 13 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Stade Marie-Marvingt (Le Mans)

Referee: Ben El Hadj Salem H. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 4
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Bolivia	ESPN 4
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 5P
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol, fubo Sports Network
China	Migu
Colombia	ESPN 4
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 2, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Ecuador	ESPN 4
Finland	Viaplay
France	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Georgia	Setanta Sport 3
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Indonesia	Vidio
Israel	5 LIVE Israel
Italy	Ligue 1+
Japan	DAZN Japan
Mexico	FOX One
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay
Paraguay	ESPN 4
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 4
Poland	Eleven Sports 4
Romania	Voyo
Serbia	Arena Sport 9
Slovakia	Nova Sport 2, Voyo
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Sport
United-kingdom	Ligue 1+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, SportsEngine Play
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 4
Vietnam	ON Plus
World	OneFootball TV


	Le Mans		Lens

	1	X	2
	4.75	4.33	1.62	Watch
	4.60	4.33	1.63
	4.75	4.20	1.61	Watch
	5.19	4.50	1.65
	4.55	4.12	1.7	Watch
	5.20	4.30	1.62
	4.84	4.41	1.65	Watch
	5.00	4.50	1.64
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.86 ↓ (5.26)	4.34 ↑ (4.17)	1.64 ↑ (1.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Le Mans
19.7%

Draw
22%

Lens
58.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18%

22.7%

59.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.7%

22.3%

60.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Le Mans has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Lens has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Le Mans than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lens than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.5%	14.3%	76.2%

Le Mans - Lens Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Le Mans will win (votes: 2 - 9.5%). Lens will win (votes: 16 - 76.2%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lens: 58% – 94.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Lens (1.25) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Lens (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hatfout E. (G) 15. Boisse N. 17. Yohou S. (C) 5. Voyer H. 29. Bretelle L. 26. Bamba R. 11. Bourabaa A. 10. Vercruysse J. 22. Calodat L. 14. Mafouta L. 25. Gueye D.	40. Risser R. (G) 24. Gradit J. 32. Antonio K. 14. Udol M. 2. Aguilar R. 27. Cuisance M. 5. Bulatovic A. 22. Skoras M. 19. Sima A. 10. Thauvin F. (C) 11. Edouard O.
Substitutes
7. Brahimi B. 13. Diallo H. 98. Kocik N. (G) 76. Larouci Y. 8. Lauray A. 9. Rabillard A. 19. Sidibe D. 16. Torrente R. 23. Traore D.	4. Celik N. 16. Gorgelin M. (G) 21. Haidara A. 9. Hazard T. 29. Ivanovic F. 28. Kadile J. 38. Soares M. 7. Sotoca F. 20. Todibo J.
Coaches
Videira P.	Toppmoller D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
15', Boisse N. 🟨,
20', Cuisance M. 🟨,
28', Vercruysse J. 🟨,
32', 1 - 0, Bourabaa A. ⚽,
38', Bulatovic A. 🟨,
44', 2 - 0, Calodat L. ⚽, Bourabaa A. (A),
45+2', 2 - 1, Sima A. ⚽, Thauvin F. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Cuisance M. ↓, Haidara A. ↑,
46', Boisse N. ↓, Sidibe D. ↑,
46', Edouard O. ↓, Ivanovic F. ↑,
46', Skoras M. ↓, Soares M. ↑,
51', 2 - 2, Ivanovic F. ⚽, Aguilar R. (A),
53', Thauvin F. 🟨,
55', Gradit J. ↓, Todibo J. ↑,
65', Bretelle L. ↓, Lauray A. ↑,
65', Gueye D. ↓, Diallo H. ↑,
65', Vercruysse J. ↓, Traore D. ↑,
76', Sima A. ↓, Hazard T. ↑,
77', Yohou S. ↓, Torrente R. ↑,

Preview

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Lens may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Lens is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Lens: Abdulhamid S. (Contusion) Baidoo S. (Knee Injury) Chavez J. (Thigh Injury) Nawrocki M. (Injury) Sagnan S. (Red Card) Titraoui Y. (Injury)

There are questionable in Le Mans: Colas E. (Injury) Kocik N. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Le Mans won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:5. (average 1.3:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Le Mans won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1.5:1.5).

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Lens: 1.95% Le Mans: 0.23%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Le Mans	5	1	3	1	9:9	0	6
15	Lens	5	1	1	3	9:9	0	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Le Mans FC
French Ligue 1
05.09.26	Nice - Le Mans	1:1 ✺
30.08.26	Rennes - Le Mans	3:2 ✺
22.08.26	Le Mans - Brest	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Le Mans - Le Havre	0:1 ✺
01.08.26	Angers - Le Mans	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 TLTLW
- RC Lens
UEFA Champions League
10.09.26	Slavia Prague - Lens	2:3 ✺
French Ligue 1
05.09.26	Lens - Lorient	0:1 ✺
29.08.26	Strasbourg - Lens	2:1 ✺
22.08.26	Lens - Auxerre	5:2 ✺
French Super Cup
16.08.26	Lens - Paris Saint-Germain	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
27.07.19	Le Mans - Lens	1:2
24.05.13	Le Mans - Lens	2:1
28.07.12	Lens - Le Mans	2:2

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