Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 26

Date: 21 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Polsat Plus Arena (Gdansk)

Referee: Myc W. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	beIN Connect
Croatia	Arena Sport 8, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Ukraine	Sport 3
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
World	Sport 1 Baltic


	Lechia Gdańsk		Pogoń Szczecin

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.3	2.55	Watch
	2.45	3.5	2.6
	2.52	3.55	2.48	Watch
	2.7	3.65	2.54
	2.66	3.62	2.52	Watch
	2.6	3.3	2.45
	2.59	3.48	2.47	Watch
	2.21	2.98	3.03
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.52 ↑ (2.21)	3.42 ↑ (2.98)	2.58 ↓ (3.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lechia Gdańsk
36.8%

Draw
27.1%

Pogoń Szczecin
36%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.5%

30%

29.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.2%

31.3%

28.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lechia Gdańsk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Pogoń Szczecin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Pogoń Szczecin's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lechia Gdańsk than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lechia Gdańsk, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pogoń Szczecin than the current prediction. (-7.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Pogoń Szczecin, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	10%	30%

Lechia Gdańsk - Pogoń Szczecin Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Lechia will win (votes: 6 - 60%). Pogoń Szczecin will win (votes: 3 - 30%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lechia: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Lechia (1.47) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Lechia (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
18. Paulsen A. (G) 2. Kludka B. 15. Dyachuk M. 4. Pllana B. 27. Vojtko M. 10. Kapic R. (C) 5. Zhelizko I. 33. Wojtowicz T. 99. Neugebauer T. 8. Cirkovic A. 79. Sezonienko K.	77. Cojocaru V. (G) 22. Loncar D. 13. Keramitsis D. 41. Szalai At. 4. Leo Borges 8. Ulvestad F. (C) 3. Acosta K. 25. Agger M. 47. Lawa N. 18. Mukairu P. 10. Cuic F.
Substitutes
49. Bambecki I. 21. Glogowski M. 23. Kalahur M. 90. Kurminowski D. 76. Mavraj I. 29. Sarnavskyi B. (G) 17. Tsarenko A. 7. Viunnyk B. 1. Weirauch S. (G)	15. Ali H. 24. Angielski K. 6. Bieganski J. 30. Czaplinski J. 90. Greenwood S. 11. Grosicki K. 31. Kaminski K. (G) 32. Koutris L. 23. Mendy B. 14. Pozo J.
Coaches
Carver J.	Thomasberg T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
11', 1 - 0, Pllana B. ⚽, Zhelizko I. (A),
37', 1 - 1, Mukairu P. ⚽, Ulvestad F. (A),
43', Vojtko M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
54', 2 - 1, Neugebauer T. ⚽, Cirkovic A. (A),
62', Cuic F. ↓, Angielski K. ↑,
62', Lawa N. ↓, Grosicki K. ↑,
62', Acosta K. ↓, Pozo J. ↑,
65', Wojtowicz T. ↓, Kurminowski D. ↑,
70', Agger M. ↓, Greenwood S. ↑,
72', Neugebauer T. ↓, Viunnyk B. ↑,
78', Loncar D. ↓, Koutris L. ↑,
90+2', Cirkovic A. ↓, Glogowski M. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 14 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lechia won 1.

Recent performances by Lechia have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Pogoń Szczecin is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Pogoń Szczecin may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lechia won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 28:32. (average 1.4:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Lechia won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 7:10. (average 0.9:1.3).

Outrights of Polish Ekstraklasa for now

Pogon Szczecin: 1.66%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Pogon Szczecin	8	4	3	1	12:6	6	15

Last Results with these Odds

Lechia Gdańsk - the odds 2.21 are the expected chance of winning is 40.47%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lechia Gdańsk
Polish Ekstraklasa
14.03.26	GKS Katowice - Lechia Gdańsk	2:0 ✺
06.03.26	Lechia Gdańsk - Jagiellonia Białystok	3:0 ✺
27.02.26	Arka Gdynia - Lechia Gdańsk	2:2 ✺
23.02.26	Lechia Gdańsk - Zagłębie Lubin	0:2 ✺
15.02.26	Motor Lublin - Lechia Gdańsk	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LWTLW
- Pogoń Szczecin
Polish Ekstraklasa
16.03.26	Pogoń Szczecin - Korona Kielce	2:1 ✺
08.03.26	Raków Częstochowa - Pogoń Szczecin	2:0 ✺
28.02.26	Pogoń Szczecin - Widzew Łódź	1:0 ✺
21.02.26	Górnik Zabrze - Pogoń Szczecin	0:1 ✺
15.02.26	Pogoń Szczecin - Arka Gdynia	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
21.09.25	Pogoń Szczecin - Lechia Gdańsk	3:4
17.05.25	Pogoń Szczecin - Lechia Gdańsk	3:3
23.11.24	Lechia Gdańsk - Pogoń Szczecin	0:3
15.04.23	Lechia Gdańsk - Pogoń Szczecin	0:1
01.10.22	Pogoń Szczecin - Lechia Gdańsk	2:1
14.05.22	Lechia Gdańsk - Pogoń Szczecin	0:0
27.11.21	Pogoń Szczecin - Lechia Gdańsk	5:1

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