Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 11

Date: 3 October 2025, Friday

Location: Polsat Plus Arena (Gdansk)

Referee: Piszczelok M. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, CANAL+ Sport 5, Ekstraklasa TV
Serbia	Arena Sport 1
Ukraine	Sport 2
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
World	Sport 2 Baltic


	Lechia Gdańsk		Wisła Płock

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.1	2.9	Watch
	2.45	3.25	2.8
	2.42	3.2	2.78	Watch
	2.54	3.25	3.03
	2.37	3.27	2.98	Watch
	2.45	3.18	2.85	Watch
	2.4	3.15	2.76
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.45 ↑ (2.35)	3.2 ↓ (3.6)	2.87 ↑ (2.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lechia Gdańsk
38.2%

Draw
29.2%

Wisła Płock
32.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.5%

25.7%

34.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.3%

25.2%

34.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lechia Gdańsk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Wisła Płock has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lechia Gdańsk than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Wisła Płock than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.6%	11.1%	33.3%

Lechia Gdańsk - Wisła Płock Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Lechia will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Wisła Płock will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lechia: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Lechia (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Wisła Płock (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 4 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Wisła Płock (1.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Lechia (votes: 1 - 25%). Wisła Płock (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
18. Paulsen A. (G) 2. Kludka B. 15. Dyachuk M. 80. Rodin M. 27. Vojtko M. 10. Kapic R. (C) 99. Neugebauer T. 79. Sezonienko K. 90. Kurminowski D. 8. Cirkovic A. 89. Bobcek T.	12. Leszczynski R. (C) 4. Haglind-Sangre M. 35. Kaminski M. 19. Edmundsson A. 21. Rogelj Z. 14. Kun D. 17. Djalo M. 8. Pacheco D. 5. Nastic B. 66. Salvador I. 99. Juric D.
Substitutes
72. Awad M. 26. Brzek B. 21. Glogowski M. 3. Olsson E. 4. Pllana B. 88. Szczepankiewicz B. 7. Viunnyk B. 1. Weirauch S. (G) 33. Wojtowicz T.	2. Custovic K. 16. Hiszpanski F. 3. Kalandadze A. 13. Lecoeuche Q. 25. Mijuskovic N. 30. Nowak W. 6. Pomorski K. 1. Pruszkowski S. (G) 20. Sekulski L. 84. Tavares T. 37. Tomczyk O. 42. Zajac F.
Coaches
Carver J.	Misiura M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
29', 1 - 0, Sezonienko K. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
49', 1 - 1, Kaminski M. ⚽,
59', Sezonienko K. 🟨,
59', Salvador I. 🟨,
61', Nastic B. ↓, Lecoeuche Q. ↑,
61', Salvador I. ↓, Pomorski K. ↑,
61', Djalo M. ↓, Custovic K. ↑,
67', Juric D. 🟨,
74', Juric D. ↓, Sekulski L. ↑,
83', Cirkovic A. ↓, Viunnyk B. ↑,
83', Pacheco D. ↓, Mijuskovic N. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 1 and 5).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lechia won 2.

In recent matches, Lechia has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Wisła Płock has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, Lechia has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Lechia: Kalahur M. (Red Card) Mena C. (Yellow Cards) Sarnavskyi B. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Wisła Płock: Gostomski M. (Knee Injury) Wieckowski M. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Lechia: Pllana B. (Inactive) Tsarenko A. (Groin Injury) Zhelizko I. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Wisła Płock: Jimenez J. (Injury)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Lechia won 10 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 26:16. (average 1.4:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Lechia won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 16:5. (average 1.6:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lechia Gdańsk
Polish Ekstraklasa
27.09.25	Korona Kielce - Lechia Gdańsk	3:0 ✺
Polish Cup
24.09.25	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Lechia Gdańsk	0:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
21.09.25	Pogoń Szczecin - Lechia Gdańsk	3:4 ✺
12.09.25	Lechia Gdańsk - GKS Katowice	2:0 ✺
31.08.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - Lechia Gdańsk	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 LWWWL
- Wisła Płock
Polish Ekstraklasa
26.09.25	Wisła Płock - GKS Katowice	1:1 ✺
Polish Cup
23.09.25	GKS Katowice - Wisła Płock	4:2 ET ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
19.09.25	Wisła Płock - Jagiellonia Białystok	0:1 ✺
29.08.25	Arka Gdynia - Wisła Płock	1:0 ✺
25.08.25	Wisła Płock - Zagłębie Lubin	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 TLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
12.07.24	Wisła Płock - Lechia Gdańsk	1:1
Polish Division 1
17.02.24	Lechia Gdańsk - Wisła Płock	3:1
04.08.23	Wisła Płock - Lechia Gdańsk	1:1
Polish Ekstraklasa
29.01.23	Lechia Gdańsk - Wisła Płock	1:0
17.07.22	Wisła Płock - Lechia Gdańsk	3:0
17.12.21	Wisła Płock - Lechia Gdańsk	1:0
02.08.21	Lechia Gdańsk - Wisła Płock	1:0

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