Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 7

Date: 29 August 2025, Friday

Location: Stadion Miejski w Gdyni (Gdynia)

Referee: Malec P. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1
Canada	beIN Connect
Croatia	Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, CANAL+ Sport 5, Ekstraklasa TV
Ukraine	Sport 2
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
World	Sport 1 Baltic, Sport 2 Baltic


	Arka Gdynia		Wisła Płock

	1	X	2
	2.63	3.1	2.55	Watch
	2.55	3.4	2.6
	2.68	3.15	2.58	Watch
	2.88	3.2	2.72
	2.85	2.97	2.66	Watch
	2.5	3.25	2.62
	2.73	3.23	2.66	Watch
	2.12	3.5	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.62 ↑ (2.11)	3.23 ↓ (3.48)	2.71 ↓ (3.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arka Gdynia
36%

Draw
29.2%

Wisła Płock
34.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.3%

26.8%

28.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.5%

26.9%

28.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arka Gdynia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Arka Gdynia's form might have worsened.

Wisła Płock has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Wisła Płock's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arka Gdynia than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Arka Gdynia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Wisła Płock than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Wisła Płock, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
5%	35%	60%

Arka Gdynia - Wisła Płock Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Arka will win (votes: 1 - 5%). Wisła Płock will win (votes: 12 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 35%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Wisła Płock: 38.5% – 81.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Wisła Płock (votes: 4 - 50%). Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Arka (1.89) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Wisła Płock (2.59) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Wisła Płock (1.42) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Arka (votes: 1 - 9.1%). Wisła Płock (votes: 6 - 54.5%). Tie (votes: 4 - 36.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
77. Weglarz D. (G) 2. Navarro M. 29. Marcjanik M. (C) 18. Celestine J. 23. Hermoso K. 37. Kerk S. 10. Nguiamba A. 8. Sidibe A. 11. Kocyla D. 99. Espiau Hernandez E. D. 27. Oliveira J.	12. Leszczynski R. (G) 2. Custovic K. 4. Haglind-Sangre M. 35. Kaminski M. 19. Edmundsson A. 5. Nastic B. 8. Pacheco D. 14. Kun D. 30. Nowak W. 20. Sekulski L. (C) 17. Djalo M.
Substitutes
9. Gaprindashvili T. 1. Grobelny J. (G) 22. Percan 6. Perea L. 17. Predenkiewicz M. 16. Ratajczyk A. 7. Sobczak S. 32. Stolc P. 14. Vitalucci H. 4. Zator D.	27. Borowski B. 16. Hiszpanski F. 11. Jimenez J. 3. Kalandadze A. 13. Lecoeuche Q. 25. Mijuskovic N. 9. Niarchos G. 6. Pomorski K. 1. Pruszkowski S. (G) 66. Salvador I.
Coaches
Szwarga D.	Misiura M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
48', 1 - 0, Espiau Hernandez E. D. ⚽, Navarro M. (A),
53', Djalo M. ↓, Jimenez J. ↑,
62', Nastic B. ↓, Lecoeuche Q. ↑,
62', Sekulski L. ↓, Salvador I. ↑,
69', Oliveira J. ↓, Gaprindashvili T. ↑,
69', Kerk S. ↓, Vitalucci H. ↑,
71', Nowak W. ↓, Niarchos G. ↑,
71', Custovic K. ↓, Hiszpanski F. ↑,
76', Jimenez J. 🟨,
76', Salvador I. 🟨,
78', Celestine J. 🟨,
80', Espiau Hernandez E. D. ↓, Percan ↑,
90+2', Vitalucci H. ↓, Predenkiewicz M. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 15 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arka won 3.

Arka has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Wisła Płock is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Arka: Gojny D. (Inactive) Jakubczyk K. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Wisła Płock: Gostomski M. (Knee Injury) Wieckowski M. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Arka won 4 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 20:26. (average 1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Arka won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:11. (average 1.1:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arka Gdynia
Polish Ekstraklasa
24.08.25	Lechia Gdańsk - Arka Gdynia	1:0 ✺
16.08.25	GKS Katowice - Arka Gdynia	4:1 ✺
09.08.25	Arka Gdynia - Pogoń Szczecin	2:1 ✺
03.08.25	Legia Warsaw - Arka Gdynia	0:0 ✺
25.07.25	Arka Gdynia - Radomiak Radom	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 LLWTT
- Wisła Płock
Polish Ekstraklasa
25.08.25	Wisła Płock - Zagłębie Lubin	2:1 ✺
17.08.25	Wisła Płock - Legia Warsaw	1:0 ✺
09.08.25	Widzew Łódź - Wisła Płock	1:1 ✺
01.08.25	Wisła Płock - Piast Gliwice	2:0 ✺
27.07.25	Raków Częstochowa - Wisła Płock	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 29 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 1
12.05.25	Wisła Płock - Arka Gdynia	1:0
02.11.24	Arka Gdynia - Wisła Płock	2:0
21.04.24	Arka Gdynia - Wisła Płock	2:0
07.10.23	Wisła Płock - Arka Gdynia	0:3
Club Friendly
28.06.22	Wisła Płock - Arka Gdynia	2:0
Polish Ekstraklasa
20.06.20	Wisła Płock - Arka Gdynia	0:0
07.03.20	Arka Gdynia - Wisła Płock	1:2

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