Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 9

Date: 19 September 2025, Friday

Location: Orlen Stadion (Płock)

Referee: Lasyk P. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	FOX Sports 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Poland	CANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Poland, CANAL+ Sport 3, CANAL+ Sport, Ekstraklasa TV
Serbia	Arena Sport 3
Spain	GolStadium
Ukraine	Sport 1, Sport 3
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Tubi TV
World	Sport 1 Baltic


	Wisła Płock		Jagiellonia Białystok

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.3	2.88	Watch
	2.48	3.2	2.72
	2.54	3.35	2.96
	40.00	6.41	1.12	Watch
	2.43	3.34	2.94	Watch
	2.55	3.25	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	8.74 ↑ (2.49)	3.81 ↑ (3.45)	2.54 ↓ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Wisła Płock
14.8%

Draw
34%

Jagiellonia Białystok
51.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.3%

26.9%

35.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.8%

27.3%

35.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Wisła Płock has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-22.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Wisła Płock's form might have worsened.

Jagiellonia Białystok has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Jagiellonia Białystok's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Wisła Płock than the current prediction. (+23%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Wisła Płock, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jagiellonia Białystok than the current prediction. (-15.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Jagiellonia Białystok, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	25%	50%

Wisła Płock - Jagiellonia Białystok Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Wisła Płock will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Jagiellonia will win (votes: 4 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Jagiellonia: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Jagiellonia (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Jagiellonia (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Jagiellonia (votes: 3 - 75%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Leszczynski R. (C) 4. Haglind-Sangre M. 35. Kaminski M. 19. Edmundsson A. 21. Rogelj Z. 8. Pacheco D. 14. Kun D. 11. Jimenez J. 13. Lecoeuche Q. 66. Salvador I. 30. Nowak W.	50. Abramowicz S. (G) 15. Wojtuszek N. 70. Pelmard A. 4. Kobayashi Y. (C) 27. Wdowik B. 31. Flach L. 11. Imaz J. 21. Lozano S. 18. Prip L. 9. Rallis D. 80. Pietuszewski O.
Substitutes
2. Custovic K. 17. Djalo M. 16. Hiszpanski F. 99. Juric D. 3. Kalandadze A. 25. Mijuskovic N. 5. Nastic B. 6. Pomorski K. 1. Pruszkowski S. (G) 84. Tavares T. 37. Tomczyk O. 42. Zajac F.	19. Cantero A. 8. Drachal D. 25. Jackson A. 72. Jozwiak K. 86. Mazurek B. 22. Piekutowski M. (G) 7. Pozo A. 10. Pululu A. 6. Romanczuk T. 3. Stojinovic D. 17. Sylla Y. 13. Vital B.
Coaches
Misiura M.	Siemieniec A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
19', Kobayashi Y. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Kobayashi Y. ↓, Vital B. ↑,
46', Lozano S. ↓, Romanczuk T. ↑,
62', Prip L. ↓, Pozo A. ↑,
62', Rallis D. ↓, Pululu A. ↑,
69', Jimenez J. ↓, Djalo M. ↑,
73', Flach L. ↓, Drachal D. ↑,
76', Pacheco D. ↓, Tavares T. ↑,
82', 0 - 1, Pululu A. (Pen),
83', Rogelj Z. ↓, Pomorski K. ↑,
84', Lecoeuche Q. ↓, Custovic K. ↑,
84', Kun D. ↓, Kalandadze A. ↑,
90+5', Pozo A. 🟨,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: ) and 5).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Wisła Płock won 3.

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Jagiellonia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Wisła Płock won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 31:25. (average 1.8:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Wisła Płock won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:11. (average 2:1.4).

Last Results with these Odds

Jagiellonia Białystok - the odds 2.6 are the expected chance of winning is 35.74%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Wisła Płock
Polish Ekstraklasa
29.08.25	Arka Gdynia - Wisła Płock	1:0 ✺
25.08.25	Wisła Płock - Zagłębie Lubin	2:1 ✺
17.08.25	Wisła Płock - Legia Warsaw	1:0 ✺
09.08.25	Widzew Łódź - Wisła Płock	1:1 ✺
01.08.25	Wisła Płock - Piast Gliwice	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.2 LWWTW
- Jagiellonia Białystok
Polish Ekstraklasa
13.09.25	Piast Gliwice - Jagiellonia Białystok	1:1 ✺
31.08.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - Lechia Gdańsk	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
28.08.25	Dinamo City - Jagiellonia Białystok	1:1 ✺
21.08.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - Dinamo City	3:0 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
17.08.25	Radomiak Radom - Jagiellonia Białystok	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 TWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
21.04.23	Wisła Płock - Jagiellonia Białystok	2:4
Club Friendly
14.01.23	Wisła Płock - Jagiellonia Białystok	3:1
Polish Ekstraklasa
07.10.22	Jagiellonia Białystok - Wisła Płock	1:1
13.03.22	Jagiellonia Białystok - Wisła Płock	0:1
18.09.21	Wisła Płock - Jagiellonia Białystok	3:0
18.04.21	Wisła Płock - Jagiellonia Białystok	2:2
23.11.20	Jagiellonia Białystok - Wisła Płock	5:2

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