Match Info

POLAND: III LIGA - GROUP I - ROUND 18

Date: 26 November 2023, Sunday


	Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki		Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.9	1.72
	3.71	3.9	1.7
	3.71	3.9	1.7
	3.75	4	1.71	Watch
	3.75	3.9	1.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.68 ↑ (2.65)	3.92 ↑ (3.45)	1.71 ↓ (2.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 10.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki
24.4%

Draw
22.9%

Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki
52.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.9%

26.1%

40%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.1%

25.5%

41%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki's form might have worsened.

Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki than the current prediction. (+8.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki than the current prediction. (-11.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

Tomaszów Mazowiecki is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki is in super shape now and in the last match got series of victories (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Tomaszów Mazowiecki won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 6-14.

Including matches at home between the teams Tomaszów Mazowiecki won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki
Polish Division 3 - Group I
18.11.23	Olimpia Zambrów - Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki	2:2 ✺
12.11.23	Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki - Unia Skierniewice	0:4 ✺
04.11.23	GKS Bełchatów - Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki	2:0 ✺
29.10.23	Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki - Pilica Białobrzegi	1:2 ✺
21.10.23	Jagiellonia II Białystok - Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 TLLLT
- Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki
Polish Division 3 - Group I
18.11.23	Unia Skierniewice - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	2:7 ✺
11.11.23	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Pilica Białobrzegi	6:0 ✺
04.11.23	Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	1:1 ✺
28.10.23	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Mławianka Mława	2:1 ✺
21.10.23	Concordia Elbląg - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 3 - Group I
05.08.23	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki	0:1
19.05.23	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki	3:2
16.10.22	Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	3:0
11.11.20	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki	6:0
13.10.19	Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	0:5

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