Match Info

III Liga - Group I - Round 11

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday


	Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki		Polonia Lidzbark Warmiński

	1	X	2
	1.98	3.60	2.95
	1.65	3.80	3.95
	2.05	3.75	3.10
	1.72	4.03	3.82	Watch
	1.94	3.50	3.05
	2.12	3.82	2.89	Watch
	1.88	3.41	3.27
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↑ (1.88)	3.7 ↑ (3.41)	3.29 ↑ (3.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki
47.8%

Draw
24.6%

Polonia Lidzbark Warmiński
27.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47%

25.9%

27%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.1%

24.3%

25.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Polonia Lidzbark Warmiński has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Polonia Lidzbark Warmiński than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki - Polonia Lidzbark Warmiński Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
34', 1 - 0, Pawlusinski M. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
67', 1 - 1, Kuzimski M. ⚽,
75', 1 - 2, Kuzimski M. ⚽,

Preview

Important points are at stake as a mid-tier club meets a struggling opponent (ranked 11th and 17th in the Relegation).

Recent results have been tough for Tomaszów Mazowiecki (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Performances by Lidzbark Warmiński have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Lidzbark Warmiński may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Bookmakers give the edge to Tomaszów Mazowiecki for this game.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Tomaszów Mazowiecki has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 4:3 (averaging 2:1.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Tomaszów Mazowiecki against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 3:1 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	T. Mazowiecki	11	4	1	6	21:23	-2	13
16	Lidzbark Warminski	11	2	3	6	16:22	-6	9

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki
Polish Division 3 - Group I
26.09.26	Olimpia Elbląg - Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki	1:2 ✺
18.09.26	Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki - Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki	1:2 ✺
11.09.26	Ząbkovia Ząbki - Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki	4:2 ✺
05.09.26	Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki - Troszyn	0:2 ✺
29.08.26	Jagiellonia II Białystok - Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WLLLT
- Polonia Lidzbark Warmiński
Polish Division 3 - Group I
26.09.26	Polonia Lidzbark Warmiński - Weszło	1:1 ✺
19.09.26	Pelikan Łowicz - Polonia Lidzbark Warmiński	1:0 ✺
12.09.26	Polonia Lidzbark Warmiński - Warta Sieradz	1:2 ✺
06.09.26	Wigry Suwałki - Polonia Lidzbark Warmiński	1:3 ✺
29.08.26	Polonia Lidzbark Warmiński - Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.2 TLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 3 - Group I
24.11.24	Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki - Polonia Lidzbark Warmiński	3:1
03.08.24	Polonia Lidzbark Warmiński - Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki	2:1

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