Match Info

III Liga - Group I - Round 10

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadion Miejski (Elblag)


	Olimpia Elbląg		Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.30	2.65
	2.22	3.4	2.62
	2.28	3.44	2.61
	2.27	3.61	2.67	Watch
	2.25	3.4	2.55
	2.11	3.86	2.88	Watch
	2.02	3.41	2.91
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↑ (2.02)	3.49 ↑ (3.41)	2.7 ↓ (2.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Olimpia Elbląg
40.9%

Draw
25.8%

Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki
33.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.7%

25.9%

30.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.4%

24.9%

29.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Olimpia Elbląg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Olimpia Elbląg than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki than the current prediction. (-4%)

Olimpia Elbląg - Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
1', 1 - 0, Swiety L. ⚽,
45+2', 1 - 1, Poplawski K. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', 1 - 2, Pienkowski M. ⚽,

Preview

A direct battle for position between neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 14th and 12th).

Both teams are currently going through a difficult patch of form.

Elbląg may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Elbląg has recorded 0 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 2:5 (averaging 1:2.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Elbląg against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 2:5 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	T. Mazowiecki	11	4	1	6	21:23	-2	13
13	Olimpia Elblag	11	4	1	6	16:20	-4	13

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Olimpia Elbląg
Polish Division 3 - Group I
19.09.26	Weszło - Olimpia Elbląg	2:1 ✺
12.09.26	Olimpia Elbląg - Pelikan Łowicz	1:0 ✺
04.09.26	Warta Sieradz - Olimpia Elbląg	4:1 ✺
29.08.26	Olimpia Elbląg - Wigry Suwałki	1:3 ✺
22.08.26	Mazovia Mińsk Mazowiecki - Olimpia Elbląg	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 LWLLT
- Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki
Polish Division 3 - Group I
18.09.26	Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki - Świt Nowy Dwór Mazowiecki	1:2 ✺
11.09.26	Ząbkovia Ząbki - Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki	4:2 ✺
05.09.26	Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki - Troszyn	0:2 ✺
29.08.26	Jagiellonia II Białystok - Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki	1:1 ✺
23.08.26	Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki - ŁKS Łódź II	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 3 - Group I
30.05.26	Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki - Olimpia Elbląg	0:0
15.11.25	Olimpia Elbląg - Lechia Tomaszów Mazowiecki	2:5

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