Match Info

SPAIN: Copa del Rey - Quarter-finals

Date: 5 February 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Butarque (Leganes)

Referee: Alberola J. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Leganés		Real Madrid

	1	X	2
	5	4.1	1.6	Watch
	5.5	4.1	1.58
	5.5	4.2	1.6	Watch
	5.84	4.25	1.6
	6.08	4.25	1.54	Watch
	5	3.9	1.6	Watch
	5.4	4.15	1.61	Watch
	5.5	4.2	1.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.48 ↓ (6.65)	4.14 ↓ (4.71)	1.59 ↑ (1.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leganés
17.3%

Draw
22.9%

Real Madrid
59.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

14.3%

20.2%

65.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

12.6%

22.9%

74.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leganés has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Real Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Real Madrid might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leganés than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (+14.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Real Madrid could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.8%	4.9%	85.2%

Leganés - Real Madrid Predictions

Users Predictions: Real Madrid will win (52 of 61 users predict this - 85.25%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.35% – 94.15%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Soriano J. (G) 2. Altimira A. 12. Rosier V. 6. Gonzalez S. (C) 22. Nastasic M. 11. Cruz J. 7. Rodriguez O. 17. Neyou Y. 5. Tapia R. 14. Brasanac D. 19. Garcia D.	13. Lunin A. (G) 8. Valverde F. 35. Asencio R. 31. Ramon J. 23. Mendy F. 14. Tchouameni A. 10. Modric L. (C) 15. Guler A. 21. Diaz B. 11. Rodrygo 16. Endrick
Substitutes
36. Alvin (G) 28. Bachiller I. 24. Chicco J. 9. de la Fuente M. 13. Dmitrovic M. (G) 20. Hernandez J. 21. Lopez R. 23. Munir El Haddadi 10. Raba D. 3. Saenz J. 32. Solozabal H.	36. Andres C. 19. Ceballos D. 26. Fran (G) 20. Garcia F. 30. Garcia G. 39. Lorenzo 17. Lucas 34. Mestre S. (G) 48. Rivas M. 18. Vallejo J. 7. Vinicius Junior
Coaches
Jimenez B.	Ancelotti C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
18', 0 - 1, Modric L. ⚽, Rodrygo (A),
25', 0 - 2, Endrick ⚽,
39', 1 - 2, Cruz J. (Pen),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Rodrygo ↓, Vinicius Junior ↑,
59', 2 - 2, Cruz J. ⚽, Brasanac D. (A),
67', Gonzalez S. 🟨,
73', Cruz J. ↓, Raba D. ↑,
76', Guler A. ↓, Ceballos D. ↑,
79', Ramon J. 🟨,
80', Rodriguez O. ↓, Chicco J. ↑,
80', Garcia D. ↓, de la Fuente M. ↑,
82', Vinicius Junior 🟨,
82', Endrick ↓, Garcia G. ↑,
82', Mendy F. ↓, Garcia F. ↑,
87', Modric L. 🟨,
90+3', 2 - 3, Garcia G. ⚽, Diaz B. (A),

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Leganés won 1.

Recent matches Leganés is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Real is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Real could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Real is a favorite.

There will not play in Leganés: Cisse S. (Hamstring Injury) Franquesa E. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Real: Alaba D. (Muscle Injury) Bellingham J. (Knock) Camavinga E. (Muscle Injury) Carvajal D. (Knee Injury) Courtois T. (Rest) Eder Militao (Knee Injury) Mbappe K. (Calf Injury) Rudiger A. (Muscle Injury)

Last 13 head-to-head matches Leganés won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 9 matches and goals 11:32 (average 0.8:2.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Leganés won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 7:14 (average 1:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Leganés
Spanish LaLiga
31.01.25	Leganés - Rayo Vallecano	0:1 ✺
26.01.25	Athletic Bilbao - Leganés	0:0 ✺
18.01.25	Leganés - Atlético Madrid	1:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
15.01.25	Almería - Leganés	2:3 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
11.01.25	Espanyol - Leganés	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 36 LTWWT
- Real Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
01.02.25	Espanyol - Real Madrid	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
29.01.25	Brest - Real Madrid	0:3 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
25.01.25	Valladolid - Real Madrid	0:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
22.01.25	Real Madrid - Red Bull Salzburg	5:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
19.01.25	Real Madrid - Las Palmas	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
24.11.24	Leganés - Real Madrid	0:3
19.07.20	Leganés - Real Madrid	2:2
30.10.19	Real Madrid - Leganés	5:0
15.04.19	Leganés - Real Madrid	1:1
Spanish Copa del Rey
16.01.19	Leganés - Real Madrid	1:0
09.01.19	Real Madrid - Leganés	3:0
Spanish LaLiga
01.09.18	Real Madrid - Leganés	4:1

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