Match Info

EUROPE: EUROPA CONFERENCE LEAGUE - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 6

Date: 14 December 2023, Thursday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Croatia	Arena Sport
Finland	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Serbia	Arena Sport
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	TNT Sports


	Legia Warsaw		AZ Alkmaar

	1	X	2
	2.88	3.4	2.38
	2.85	3.2	2.3
	2.95	3.4	2.35	Watch
	3.08	3.35	2.49
	3.08	3.27	2.49
	2.88	3.5	2.25
	2.92	3.35	2.38
	2.95	3.45	2.43
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.95 ↑ (2.55)	3.37 ↓ (3.5)	2.38 ↓ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Legia Warsaw
32.1%

Draw
28.1%

AZ Alkmaar
39.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.4%

26.5%

37.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.5%

26.6%

37%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Legia Warsaw has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

AZ Alkmaar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Legia Warsaw than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.1%	28.6%	64.3%

Legia Warsaw - AZ Alkmaar Predictions

Users Predictions: 28 users predict this event. Legia will win (votes: 2 - 7.1%). AZ will win (votes: 18 - 64.3%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 28.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for AZ: 46.6% – 82%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Tobiasz K. (G) 12. Pankov R. 8. Augustyniak R. 3. Kapuadi S. 13. Wszolek P. 99. Slisz B. 22. Elitim J. 5. Ribeiro Y. 27. Josue (C) 28. Gual M. 20. Muci E.	20. Owusu-Oduro R. (G) 2. Sugawara Y. 4. Martins Indi B. (C) 5. Penetra 18. Wolfe D. M. 6. Dantas T. 10. de Wit D. 8. Clasie J. 30. Kasius D. 9. Pavlidis V. 19. van Brederode M.
Substitutes
32. Baku M. 4. Burch M. 21. Celhaka J. 17. Gil Dias 30. Hladun D. (G) 55. Jedrzejczyk A. 67. Kapustka B. 9. Kramer B. 33. Kun P. 26. Rejczyk F. 39. Rosolek M. 86. Strzalek I.	59. Addai J. 25. Bazoer R. 22. Dekker M. 33. Goes W. 28. Goudmijn K. 29. Meerdink M. 14. Mihailovic D. 7. Odgaard J. 21. Poku E. 11. Sadiq I. 15. van Bommel R. 12. Verhulst H. (G)
Coaches
Runjaic K.	Jansen P.

Preview

Recent matches Legia is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

AZ is in super shape now and in the last match got series of victories (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recently Legia have a series of guest games.

Recently AZ have a series of home games.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

There will not play in Legia: Mustafaev R. (Knee Injury) Pekhart T. (Injury)

There will not play in AZ: Lahdo M. (Injury) Mijnans S. (Knee Injury) Ryan M. (Face Injury)

There are questionable in AZ: de Wit M. (Foot Injury)

Last 1 head-to-head matches Legia won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Legia Warsaw
Polish Ekstraklasa
10.12.23	ŁKS Łódź - Legia Warsaw	1:1 ✺
Polish Cup
06.12.23	Korona Kielce - Legia Warsaw	2:1 ET ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
03.12.23	Zagłębie Lubin - Legia Warsaw	0:3 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
30.11.23	Aston Villa - Legia Warsaw	2:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
25.11.23	Legia Warsaw - Warta Poznań	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 TLWLT
- AZ Alkmaar
Dutch Eredivisie
09.12.23	AZ Alkmaar - Almere City	4:1 ✺
06.12.23	AZ Alkmaar - NEC Nijmegen	1:2 ✺
03.12.23	Utrecht - AZ Alkmaar	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
30.11.23	AZ Alkmaar - Zrinjski Mostar	1:0 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
26.11.23	AZ Alkmaar - Volendam	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
05.10.23	AZ Alkmaar - Legia Warsaw	1:0

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