Match Info

EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification - Quarter-finals

Date: 25 July 2024, Thursday

Location: Stadion Wojska Polskiego (Warsaw)

Referee: Frischer J. (Est)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	Polsat Sport 1, Polsat Sport Premium 1
United-kingdom	S4C Clic


	Legia Warsaw		Caernarfon Town

	1	X	2
	1.03	19	41	Watch
	1.02	21	51
	1.01	19	60	Watch
	1.01	12.5	18.5
	1.01	19.39	38.55	Watch
	1.02	17	41
	1.02	19	46	Watch
	1.02	15	50
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.02 ↓ (1.05)	17.74 ↑ (11.33)	43.26 ↑ (24.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.50

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Legia Warsaw
92.5%

Draw
5.3%

Caernarfon Town
2.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

88.1%

8.2%

3.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Legia Warsaw has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

Caernarfon Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Legia Warsaw - Caernarfon Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Legia will win (votes: 8 - 80%). Caernarfon will win (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Legia: 55.2% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Tobiasz K. (G) 8. Augustyniak R. 55. Jedrzejczyk A. (C) 3. Kapuadi S. 13. Wszolek P. 67. Kapustka B. 5. Goncalves C. 82. Luquinhas 25. Morishita R. 28. Gual M. 9. Kramer B.	1. McMullan S. (G) 2. Owen M. 4. Williams G. 27. Sears R. 5. Mooney P. 3. Jones M. 8. Gosset D. 10. Thomas D. (C) 18. Mendes P. 20. Lloyd L. 7. Clarke Z.
Substitutes
80. Adkonis J. 21. Celhaka J. 11. Chodyna K. 27. Kobylak G. (G) 99. Majchrzak J. 7. Pekhart T. 42. Sergio Barcia 86. Strzalek I. 71. Szczepaniak M. 19. Vinagre R. 24. Ziolkowski J.	9. Davies A. 17. Downey S. 16. Evans O. 21. Faux J. 15. Hill M. 31. Pritchard T. (G) 13. Thomas H. (G) 14. Williams M.
Coaches
Feio G.	Davies R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
22', 1 - 0, Gual M. ⚽, Kapuadi S. (A),
33', Mendes P. 🟨,
44', 2 - 0, Morishita R. ⚽,
2nd Half (4 - 0)
48', 3 - 0, Gual M. ⚽, Kramer B. (A),
53', 4 - 0, Gual M. ⚽, Morishita R. (A),
55', Thomas D. ↓, Davies A. ↑,
55', Sears R. ↓, Faux J. ↑,
56', Luquinhas ↓, Szczepaniak M. ↑,
64', Kapustka B. ↓, Strzalek I. ↑,
64', Wszolek P. ↓, Chodyna K. ↑,
67', Mooney P. 🟨,
68', Kramer B. (Pen),
68', Clarke Z. ↓, Hill M. ↑,
71', 5 - 0, Kramer B. ⚽, Szczepaniak M. (A),
72', Kramer B. ↓, Pekhart T. ↑,
72', Gual M. ↓, Majchrzak J. ↑,
78', Lloyd L. ↓, Williams M. ↑,
78', Mendes P. ↓, Downey S. ↑,
90+3', 6 - 0, Goncalves C. ⚽, Chodyna K. (A),

Preview

1st leg.

Legia is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Caernarfon could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Legia have a series of home games.

In this match Legia is certain favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Legia Warsaw
Polish Ekstraklasa
20.07.24	Legia Warsaw - Zagłębie Lubin	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
06.07.24	Legia Warsaw - Lechia Gdańsk	1:1 ✺
06.07.24	Legia Warsaw - Jagiellonia Białystok	2:0 ✺
24.06.24	Universitatea Craiova - Legia Warsaw	1:0 ✺
21.06.24	Legia Warsaw - Odra Opole	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WTWLW
- Caernarfon Town
UEFA Europa Conference League
17.07.24	Crusaders - Caernarfon Town	3:2 penalties ✺
11.07.24	Caernarfon Town - Crusaders	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
29.06.24	Cliftonville - Caernarfon Town	1:2 ✺
Welsh Cymru Premier
18.05.24	Caernarfon Town - Pen-y-Bont	3:1 ✺
10.05.24	Caernarfon Town - Cardiff Metropolitan	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 26.3 LWWWW

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