Match Info
Cymru Premier - Round 10Date: 28 September 2025, SundayLocation: The Oval (Caernarfon)Referee: Owen T. (Wal)
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 |
|
 |
|
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Caernarfon Town |
|
Cardiff Metropolitan |
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|
1 |
X |
2 |
|
 |
1.55 |
4.25 |
4.85 |
|
 |
1.53 |
4.43 |
4.93 |
|
 |
2.25 |
3.62 |
2.87 |
 Watch |
 |
1.57 |
4.1 |
4.98 |
|
 |
1.58 |
4.1 |
4.6 |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.7 ↑
(1.54) |
4.1 ↓
(4.3) |
4.45 ↓
(4.96) |
|
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
- The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Caernarfon Town
55.7% | Draw
23% | Cardiff Metropolitan
21.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Caernarfon Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)Cardiff Metropolitan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caernarfon Town than the current prediction. (+5.7%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Caernarfon Town, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cardiff Metropolitan than the current prediction. (-3.1%)Predictions
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- AH -1, 1st Half - Caernarfon (3.53) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH -1 - Caernarfon (1.93) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Caernarfon (votes: 3 - 100%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0 
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Lineups
| Starting Lineups |
1.  Roberts C. (G)
19. Bradley S.
9. Davies A.
17. Downey S.
8. Gosset D.
24.  Harrison K.
3. Jones M.
6. Lewis I.
23. Lock J.
27. Sears R.
15. Smith D.
| 13. Seager S. (G)
2. Chubb M.
16. Craven C.
7. Evans E.
10. Jones S.
8. Kabongo D.
14. Morris J.
19. Mwandwe L.
6. Reynolds R.
5. Richards S.
11. Roscrow A.
|
| Substitutes |
12.  Abadaki O.
39. Ellis O.
21. Evans C.
5. Mooney P.
2. Owen M.
22. Roberts H.
13. Thomas H. (G)
| 1. Absalom K. (G)
12. Lonergan R.
15. Morgan G.
17. Payne J.
9. Rees L.
21. Soady B.
|
| Coaches |
Davies R.
| Jenkins R.
|
Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 4', 0 - 1, Roscrow A. ⚽,
- 34', Richards S. 🟨,
- 38', Harrison K. 🟨,
- 44', Harrison K. ↓, Owen M. ↑,
- 2nd Half (0 - 2)
- 50', 0 - 2, Mwandwe L. ⚽,
- 64', Lewis I. ↓, Abadaki O. ↑,
- 68', Roscrow A. ↓, Payne J. ↑,
- 75', Evans E. ↓, Rees L. ↑,
- 78', 0 - 3, Payne J. ⚽,
- 80', Bradley S. ↓, Mooney P. ↑,
- 80', Lock J. ↓, Evans C. ↑,
- 80', Sears R. ↓, Ellis O. ↑,
- 83', Gosset D. 🟨,
- 86', Morris J. ↓, Soady B. ↑,
Preview
A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Cymru Premier (Championship Group: ) and 11 in the zone Cymru Premier (Relegation Group: )).In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Caernarfon won 3.Caernarfon is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).Cardiff Metropolitan is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0). In this match, Caernarfon is seen as the favorite.We predict that Caernarfon will win today's game, with odds of 1.54.In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Caernarfon won 12 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 40:22. (average 2:1.1).Including home matches between the teams, Caernarfon won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 23:9. (average 2.3:0.9).
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Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| Welsh Cymru Premier | | | 09.08.25 | Cardiff Metropolitan - Caernarfon Town | 2:2 | | 11.05.25 | Caernarfon Town - Cardiff Metropolitan | 1:0 penalties | | 19.04.25 | Caernarfon Town - Cardiff Metropolitan | 2:1 | | 08.03.25 | Cardiff Metropolitan - Caernarfon Town | 4:2 | | 05.10.24 | Cardiff Metropolitan - Caernarfon Town | 1:2 | | 31.08.24 | Caernarfon Town - Cardiff Metropolitan | 1:2 | | 10.05.24 | Caernarfon Town - Cardiff Metropolitan | 2:0 |
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