Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 28

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadion Wojska Polskiego (Warsaw)

Referee: Kos D. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect
Croatia	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Ukraine	Sport 1
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
World	Sport 1 Baltic


	Legia Warsaw		Górnik Zabrze

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.25	3.4	Watch
	2.08	3.25	3.35	Watch
	2.25	3.3	3.59
	2.15	3.54	3.34	Watch
	2.15	3	3.3
	2.15	3.33	3.48	Watch
	2.04	3.25	3.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↑ (2.09)	3.27 ↓ (3.3)	3.4 ↓ (3.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Legia Warsaw
43.9%

Draw
28.6%

Górnik Zabrze
27.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.6%

28.2%

27.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.4%

28.7%

26.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Legia Warsaw has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Górnik Zabrze has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Legia Warsaw than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Górnik Zabrze than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	6.2%	6.2%

Legia Warsaw - Górnik Zabrze Predictions

Users Predictions: Legia Warsaw will win (14 of 16 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.29% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Legia Warsaw will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
89. Hindrich O. (C) 91. Piatkowski K. 8. Augustyniak R. 12. Pankov R. 7. Wszolek P. 22. Elitim J. 44. Szymanski D. 23. Kun P. 53. Urbanski W. 29. Rajovic M. 9. Adamski R.	1. Lubik M. (G) 61. Sacek M. 26. Janicki R. 4. Bochniewicz P. 64. Janza E. (C) 13. Sadilek L. 8. Hellebrand P. 18. Ambros L. 33. Khlan M. 23. Liseth S. 67. Zmrzly O.
Substitutes
55. Jedrzejczyk A. 67. Kapustka B. 99. Kovacik S. 77. Krasniqi E. 18. Nsame J. 13. Reca A. 1. Tobiasz K. (G) 82. Urbanski K. 20. Zewlakow J.	28. Donio B. 7. Ikia Dimi Y. 20. Josema 14. Kubicki J. 99. Loska T. (G) 17. Lukoszek K. 15. Massimo R. 16. Olkowski P. 36. Rakoczy M. 77. Rupanov B. 21. Sauer M. 5. Szczesniak K.
Coaches
Papszun M.	Gasparik M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
26', Wszolek P. 🟨,
30', Sadilek L. 🟨,
39', Hellebrand P. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Liseth S. ↓, Ikia Dimi Y. ↑,
61', Urbanski W. 🟨,
63', Ambros L. ↓, Kubicki J. ↑,
67', Szymanski D. 🟨,
67', Urbanski W. ↓, Urbanski K. ↑,
70', Khlan M. 🟨,
75', Khlan M. ↓, Massimo R. ↑,
79', Rajovic M. 🟨,
82', 1 - 0, Augustyniak R. (Penalty Awarded),
85', Rajovic M. ↓, Krasniqi E. ↑,
85', Szymanski D. ↓, Jedrzejczyk A. ↑,
85', Sadilek L. ↓, Rakoczy M. ↑,
85', Janza E. ↓, Lukoszek K. ↑,
85', Kun P. ↓, Reca A. ↑,
90+6', 1 - 1, Bochniewicz P. ⚽, Rakoczy M. (A),

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 15 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Legia won 3.

Legia is showing really good form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Górnik Zabrze is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Górnik Zabrze may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Legia could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Legia: Colak A. (Inactive) Kapustka B. (Injury) Vinagre R. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Górnik Zabrze: Podolski L. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Legia: Pankov R. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Legia won 12 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 40:28. (average 2:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Legia won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 25:12. (average 2.5:1.2).

Outrights of Polish Ekstraklasa for now

Gornik Zabrze: 20.78% Legia: 13.85%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Gornik Zabrze	10	8	1	1	19:9	10	25
3	Legia	9	5	4	0	19:8	11	19

Last Results with these Odds

Legia Warsaw - the odds 2.09 are the expected chance of winning is 44.58%, but this team recently wins 21% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Legia Warsaw
Polish Ekstraklasa
06.04.26	Pogoń Szczecin - Legia Warsaw	0:2 ✺
22.03.26	Legia Warsaw - Raków Częstochowa	1:1 ✺
13.03.26	Radomiak Radom - Legia Warsaw	1:1 ✺
08.03.26	Legia Warsaw - Cracovia	1:0 ✺
01.03.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Legia Warsaw	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WTTWT
- Górnik Zabrze
Polish Cup
08.04.26	Zawisza Bydgoszcz - Górnik Zabrze	0:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
04.04.26	Górnik Zabrze - Cracovia	3:0 ✺
Club Friendly
25.03.26	Górnik Zabrze - Górnik 2 Zabrze	2:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
22.03.26	Widzew Łódź - Górnik Zabrze	0:0 ✺
15.03.26	Górnik Zabrze - Raków Częstochowa	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
05.10.25	Górnik Zabrze - Legia Warsaw	3:1
06.04.25	Górnik Zabrze - Legia Warsaw	1:2
28.09.24	Legia Warsaw - Górnik Zabrze	1:1
01.04.24	Górnik Zabrze - Legia Warsaw	1:3
24.09.23	Legia Warsaw - Górnik Zabrze	2:1
04.03.23	Górnik Zabrze - Legia Warsaw	0:1
19.08.22	Legia Warsaw - Górnik Zabrze	2:2

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