Match Info

EUROPE: Conference League - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 13 March 2025, Thursday

Location: Stadion Wojska Polskiego (Warsaw)

Referee: Jug M. (Slo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports 1, Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Chile	Disney+
China	iQIYI
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 8, MAXtv To Go
Denmark	Disney+
Finland	Viaplay
France	Canal+ Live 12
Greece	ANT 1+
Hungary	RTL+
Iceland	Viaplay
India	JioTV app, Sony LIV
Indonesia	beIN Connect, Vidio
Malaysia	beIN Connect
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Claro Sports, FOX Sports 3
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	TV3+, Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect
Poland	Polsat Sport 1, Polsat Sport Premium 2
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 5
South-america	ViX Latin America
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 10
Sweden	Disney+
Turkey	Tabii
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 12
United-kingdom	Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 6
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	ON Plus
World	Disney+, VIX App


	Legia Warsaw		Molde

	1	X	2
	1.67	4	4.5
	1.71	3.9	4
	1.65	4	4.75	Watch
	1.71	4.22	4.9
	1.68	4.18	4.61	Watch
	1.71	4.09	4.61
	1.65	4	4.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↓ (1.92)	4.06 ↑ (3.89)	4.59 ↑ (3.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Legia Warsaw
56.1%

Draw
23.3%

Molde
20.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.3%

24.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.5%

24.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Legia Warsaw has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Legia Warsaw's performance.

Molde has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Legia Warsaw than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Molde than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	5.6%	11.1%

Legia Warsaw - Molde Predictions

Users Predictions: Legia Warsaw will win (45 of 54 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.39% – 93.27%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Tobiasz K. (G) 13. Wszolek P. 55. Jedrzejczyk A. (C) 3. Kapuadi S. 19. Vinagre R. 67. Kapustka B. 8. Augustyniak R. 22. Elitim J. 11. Chodyna K. 28. Gual M. 25. Morishita R.	1. Karlstrom J. (G) 21. Linnes M. 26. Amundsen I. 4. Lund V. 18. Stenevik H. 16. Breivik E. 10. Enggaard M. 20. Eriksen K. 7. Eikrem M. (C) 17. Daehli M. 8. Gulbrandsen F.
Substitutes
21. Bichakhchyan V. 5. Goncalves C. 77. Kovacevic V. (G) 23. Kun P. 31. Mendes-Dudzinski M. (G) 6. Oyedele M. 12. Pankov R. 7. Pekhart T. 71. Szczepaniak M. 24. Ziolkowski J.	2. Bjornbak M. 27. Daga D. 19. Haugan E. 28. Haugen K. 5. Hestad E. 9. Ihler F. 30. Juberg-Hovland L. 34. McDermott S. (G) 46. Mork M. S. 31. Myklebust A. 29. Nyheim G. 22. Posiadala A. (G)
Coaches
Feio G.	Hogmo P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
34', 1 - 0, Morishita R. ⚽, Wszolek P. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
60', Linnes M. ↓, Haugen K. ↑,
62', Jedrzejczyk A. 🟨,
71', Daehli M. ↓, Hestad E. ↑,
84', Elitim J. ↓, Goncalves C. ↑,
89', Chodyna K. ↓, Bichakhchyan V. ↑,
90+3', Augustyniak R. ↓, Oyedele M. ↑,
90+6', Gulbrandsen F. ↓, Ihler F. ↑,
Extra Time (1 - 0)
91', Enggaard M. ↓, Daga D. ↑,
103', Vinagre R. ↓, Kun P. ↑,
103', Jedrzejczyk A. ↓, Ziolkowski J. ↑,
106', Amundsen I. ↓, Bjornbak M. ↑,
108', 2 - 0, Gual M. ⚽, Oyedele M. (A),
114', Lund V. 🟨,
114', Lund V. ↓, Nyheim G. ↑,
116', Eriksen K. 🟨,
118', Eriksen K. 🟨,
120', Karlstrom J. 🟨,
120', Eikrem M. 🟨,
120', Ziolkowski J. 🟨,
120+1', Jedrzejczyk A. 🟥,

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 2-3.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Molde could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Molde have a series of home games.

In this match Legia is a favorite.

There will not play in Legia: Kobylak G. (Inactive) Leszczynski J. (Knee Injury) Luquinhas (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Molde: Bakke J. (Injury) Berisha V. (Leg Injury) Odegard N. (Knee Injury) Oyvann C. (Knee Injury)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Legia won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 5:10 (average 1:2).

Including matches at home between the teams Legia won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:3 (average 0:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Legia Warsaw
Polish Ekstraklasa
10.03.25	Motor Lublin - Legia Warsaw	3:3 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
06.03.25	Molde - Legia Warsaw	3:2 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
02.03.25	Legia Warsaw - Śląsk Wrocław	3:1 ✺
Polish Cup
26.02.25	Legia Warsaw - Jagiellonia Białystok	3:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
22.02.25	Radomiak Radom - Legia Warsaw	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 TLWWL
- Molde FK
UEFA Europa Conference League
06.03.25	Molde - Legia Warsaw	3:2 ✺
Club Friendly
27.02.25	Molde - Ranheim	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
20.02.25	Shamrock Rovers - Molde	0:2 penalties ✺
13.02.25	Molde - Shamrock Rovers	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
01.02.25	Molde - St Patricks Athletic	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WTWLL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
06.03.25	Molde - Legia Warsaw	3:2
22.02.24	Legia Warsaw - Molde	0:3
15.02.24	Molde - Legia Warsaw	3:2
UEFA Champions League
07.08.13	Legia Warsaw - Molde	0:0
31.07.13	Molde - Legia Warsaw	1:1

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