Match Info

Polish Cup - 1/16-finals

Date: 30 October 2025, Thursday

Location: Stadion Wojska Polskiego (Warsaw)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	TVP Sport app, TVP Sport


	Legia Warsaw		Pogoń Szczecin

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.52	4.05	5.7
	1.79	3.37	4.55	Watch
	1.57	3.72	5.21	Watch
	1.66	3.6	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↓ (1.83)	3.69 ↑ (3.29)	4.99 ↑ (3.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Legia Warsaw
56.5%

Draw
25%

Pogoń Szczecin
18.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.8%

27.2%

24%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49%

27.1%

23.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Legia Warsaw has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Legia Warsaw's performance.

Pogoń Szczecin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Pogoń Szczecin might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Legia Warsaw than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Legia Warsaw that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pogoń Szczecin than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Pogoń Szczecin could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.9%	0%	9.1%

Legia Warsaw - Pogoń Szczecin Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Users Predictions: Legia Warsaw will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.92% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Legia Warsaw will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
27. Kobylak G. (G) 30. Stojanovic P. 91. Piatkowski K. 3. Kapuadi S. (C) 13. Reca A. 44. Szymanski D. 5. Goncalves C. 11. Chodyna K. 82. Urbanski K. 77. Krasniqi E. 29. Rajovic M.	77. Cojocaru V. (G) 28. Wahlqvist L. 13. Keramitsis D. 2. Huja M. 32. Koutris L. 7. Juwara M. 19. Ndiaye M. 8. Ulvestad F. 90. Greenwood S. 18. Mukairu P. 11. Grosicki K. (C)
Substitutes
21. Bichakhchyan V. 14. Colak A. 22. Elitim J. 67. Kapustka B. 12. Pankov R. 1. Tobiasz K. (G) 53. Urbanski W. 19. Vinagre R. 7. Wszolek P.	15. Ali H. 6. Bieganski J. 31. Kaminski K. (G) 4. Leo Borges 22. Loncar D. 9. Molnar R. 14. Pozo J. 10. Przyborek A. 61. Smolinski K.
Coaches
Iordanescu E.	Thomasberg T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45', Reca A. ↓, Vinagre R. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
58', 0 - 1, Grosicki K. ⚽, Ndiaye M. (A),
60', Mukairu P. ↓, Molnar R. ↑,
66', Goncalves C. ↓, Elitim J. ↑,
66', Urbanski K. ↓, Bichakhchyan V. ↑,
66', Rajovic M. ↓, Colak A. ↑,
71', Grosicki K. ↓, Przyborek A. ↑,
77', 1 - 1, Piatkowski K. ⚽, Elitim J. (A),
83', Ndiaye M. 🟨,
86', Przyborek A. 🟨,
87', Greenwood S. ↓, Smolinski K. ↑,
88', Piatkowski K. 🟨,
88', Molnar R. 🟨,
Extra Time (0 - 1)
96', Vinagre R. 🟨,
99', Szymanski D. 🟨,
106', Koutris L. ↓, Leo Borges ↑,
106', Stojanovic P. ↓, Wszolek P. ↑,
106', Ulvestad F. ↓, Bieganski J. ↑,
112', Kapuadi S. 🟨,
117', 1 - 2, Przyborek A. ⚽, Juwara M. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Legia won 2.

Recent form of Legia has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Pogoń Szczecin's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Pogoń Szczecin may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Legia is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Legia won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 31:30. (average 1.6:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Legia won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 16:12. (average 1.5:1.1).

Last Results with these Odds

Legia Warsaw - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 48.82%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Legia Warsaw
Polish Ekstraklasa
26.10.25	Legia Warsaw - Lech Poznań	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
23.10.25	Shakhtar Donetsk - Legia Warsaw	1:2 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
19.10.25	Zagłębie Lubin - Legia Warsaw	3:1 ✺
05.10.25	Górnik Zabrze - Legia Warsaw	3:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
02.10.25	Legia Warsaw - Samsunspor	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 TWLLL
- Pogoń Szczecin
Polish Ekstraklasa
25.10.25	Pogoń Szczecin - Cracovia	2:1 ✺
19.10.25	Lech Poznań - Pogoń Szczecin	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
11.10.25	Pogoń Szczecin - Wisła Kraków	3:3 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
03.10.25	Pogoń Szczecin - Piast Gliwice	2:1 ✺
28.09.25	Legia Warsaw - Pogoń Szczecin	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WTTWL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
28.09.25	Legia Warsaw - Pogoń Szczecin	1:0
Polish Cup
02.05.25	Pogoń Szczecin - Legia Warsaw	3:4
Polish Ekstraklasa
28.03.25	Legia Warsaw - Pogoń Szczecin	0:0
20.09.24	Pogoń Szczecin - Legia Warsaw	1:0
02.03.24	Legia Warsaw - Pogoń Szczecin	1:1
27.09.23	Pogoń Szczecin - Legia Warsaw	3:4
07.05.23	Pogoń Szczecin - Legia Warsaw	2:1

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