Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 28

Date: 5 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa (Leiria)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV1


	Leiria		Lusitânia

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.25	4.2
	1.88	3.35	3.95
	1.87	3.59	4.65
	1.85	3.55	4.16	Watch
	1.8	3.25	4
	1.86	3.42	4.1	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↑ (1.84)	3.4 ↓ (3.42)	4.18 ↑ (3.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leiria
50.5%

Draw
27.3%

Lusitânia
22.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.7%

26.7%

23.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.9%

25.6%

22.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leiria has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Lusitânia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leiria than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lusitânia than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Leiria - Lusitânia Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Leiria will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Leiria (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
98. Joao Bravim (G) 68. Maga 44. Marcelo 5. Rofino V. G. 3. Baro M. 19. Fernandez P. 41. Daniel Borges 21. Pires M. 11. Jair da Silva 9. Munoz J. (C) 86. Michel D.	32. Vitor Hugo (G) 28. Mesquita T. (C) 3. Josue Sa 22. Faria B. 16. Rocha L. 88. Teixeira M. 6. Alhassan I. 27. Fabinho 12. Arsenio 11. Pereira M. 7. Martins R.
Substitutes
25. Amado D. 20. Gomes B. 17. Lucho Vega 99. Odehnal J. (G) 6. Rodriguez G. 78. Santos J. 15. Silva J. 52. Sylla H. 39. Zikovic R.	29. Cerveira T. 80. Manel 24. Mimito 99. Platiny 1. Ricardo M. (G) 9. Silva J. 5. Silverio 77. Tiago Dias 8. Tokinho Doria
Coaches
Pereira F.	Miguel Pedro

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
5', Marcelo 🟨,
12', Daniel Borges 🟨,
26', Faria B. 🟨,
37', Martins R. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
51', Rocha L. 🟨,
58', Faria B. ↓, Silverio ↑,
59', Martins R. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
61', Pires M. 🟨,
69', Teixeira M. ↓, Mimito ↑,
73', Daniel Borges ↓, Lucho Vega ↑,
78', Rocha L. ↓, Cerveira T. ↑,
78', Fabinho ↓, Tiago Dias ↑,
81', Jair da Silva ↓, Santos J. ↑,
87', Fernandez P. ↓, Sylla H. ↑,
87', Baro M. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
88', Munoz J. ↓, Gomes B. ↑,
90', Maga 🟨,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 4 and 9).

Leiria is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Lusitânia has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Leiria may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Leiria is considered a favorite.

We predict that Leiria will win today's game, with odds of 1.79.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Leiria won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:3. (average 2:1).

Including home match between the teams, Leiria won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Lusitania FC	6	5	1	0	11:4	7	16
7	Leiria	6	3	1	2	10:7	3	10

Last Results with these Odds

Leiria - the odds 1.84 are the expected chance of winning is 49.72%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Leiria
Portuguese Liga 2
29.03.26	Leiria - Paços de Ferreira	2:0 ✺
20.03.26	Chaves - Leiria	0:2 ✺
15.03.26	Leiria - Marítimo	1:2 ✺
08.03.26	Leixões - Leiria	1:4 ✺
28.02.26	Leiria - Portimonense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15 WWLWW
- Lusitânia FC
Portuguese Liga 2
21.03.26	Lusitânia - Académico de Viseu	0:3 ✺
15.03.26	Vizela - Lusitânia	4:3 ✺
08.03.26	Lusitânia - Sporting Lisbon B	1:0 ✺
01.03.26	Farense - Lusitânia	2:1 ✺
22.02.26	Lusitânia - Feirense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
09.11.25	Lusitânia - Leiria	1:1
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
02.06.19	Leiria - Lusitânia	2:0
25.05.19	Lusitânia - Leiria	2:3

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