Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 27

Date: 20 March 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Chaves (Chaves)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV7


	Chaves		Leiria

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.1	2.7
	2.35	2.9	2.8
	2.28	3.05	3.1
	2.46	3.1	3.38
	2.35	3.06	3.21	Watch
	2.3	2.8	3
	2.38	2.89	3.26
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.36 ↑ (2.13)	2.99 ↓ (3.09)	3.06 ↓ (3.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chaves
39.1%

Draw
30.9%

Leiria
30.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.5%

30%

26.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.7%

31.5%

25.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chaves has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Leiria has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chaves than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Chaves, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leiria than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	14.3%	42.9%

Chaves - Leiria Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Chaves will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Leiria will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Vozinha (C) 4. Bruno Rodrigues 33. Simoes T. 3. Romero A. 19. Tiago Almeida 20. Ktatau 8. Pinho P. 77. Reinaldo 7. Delgado J. 17. Roberto 10. Rodrigues A.	98. Joao Bravim (G) 68. Maga 5. Rofino V. G. 16. Ze Pedro 3. Baro M. 19. Fernandez P. 8. Kouassi E. 41. Daniel Borges 11. Jair da Silva 9. Munoz J. (C) 86. Michel D.
Substitutes
34. Alves R. 44. Bikoro F. 15. Carraca 23. Gudzulic M. (G) 97. Joao Teixeira 5. Kiko 30. Kusso D. 26. Rodrigues G. 29. Tounkara M.	20. Gomes B. 18. Lottin A. 17. Lucho Vega 99. Odehnal J. (G) 21. Pires M. 6. Rodriguez G. 15. Silva J. 52. Sylla H. 10. van der Gaag J.
Coaches
Martins V.	Pereira F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
21', Simoes T. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Tiago Almeida ↓, Carraca ↑,
54', Kouassi E. ↓, Pires M. ↑,
56', 0 - 1, Daniel Borges ⚽,
57', Pires M. 🟨,
64', Romero A. ↓, Kiko ↑,
64', Rodrigues A. ↓, Joao Teixeira ↑,
66', Munoz J. ↓, van der Gaag J. ↑,
68', Maga 🟨,
76', Baro M. 🟨,
79', Maga ↓, Sylla H. ↑,
79', Daniel Borges ↓, Lucho Vega ↑,
79', Fernandez P. ↓, Lottin A. ↑,
81', 0 - 2, Lottin A. ⚽,
82', Simoes T. ↓, Alves R. ↑,
82', Ktatau ↓, Kusso D. ↑,
85', Ze Pedro 🟨,
88', Carraca 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 9 and 5).

Recent performances by Chaves have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Leiria is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Chaves will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Chaves won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:5. (average 0.8:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Chaves won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Leiria	6	3	1	2	10:7	3	10
16	Chaves	6	1	1	4	5:13	-8	4

Last Results with these Odds

Chaves - the odds 2.13 are the expected chance of winning is 43.5%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Desportivo Chaves
Portuguese Liga 2
13.03.26	Sporting Lisbon B - Chaves	0:1 ✺
06.03.26	Chaves - Académico de Viseu	1:0 ✺
28.02.26	Vizela - Chaves	3:2 ✺
22.02.26	Chaves - Farense	2:0 ✺
14.02.26	Feirense - Chaves	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WWLWL
- UD Leiria
Portuguese Liga 2
15.03.26	Leiria - Marítimo	1:2 ✺
08.03.26	Leixões - Leiria	1:4 ✺
28.02.26	Leiria - Portimonense	1:0 ✺
21.02.26	Oliveirense - Leiria	2:4 ✺
15.02.26	Leiria - Porto B	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 LWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
03.11.25	Leiria - Chaves	2:1
10.05.25	Chaves - Leiria	0:2
12.01.25	Leiria - Chaves	1:1
Taça de Portugal
26.09.15	Leiria - Chaves	0:1 penalties

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