Match Info

Liga Revelacao U23 - Losers stage - Round 5

Date: 24 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa (Leiria)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Leiria U23		Estoril U23

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.35	2.72
	2.31	3.85	2.69
	2.28	3.87	2.68	Watch
	2.25	3.25	2.63
	2.39	3.53	2.73	Watch
	2.28	3.5	2.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.29 ↓ (2.91)	3.56 ↓ (3.79)	2.69 ↑ (2.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leiria U23
40%

Draw
25.8%

Estoril U23
34.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32%

24.6%

43.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.6%

24.1%

42.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leiria U23 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Leiria U23's performance.

Estoril U23 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Estoril U23 might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leiria U23 than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Leiria U23 that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Estoril U23 than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Estoril U23 could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Leiria U23 - Estoril U23 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
12', 0 - 1, ⚽,
17', 0 - 2, ⚽,
35', 1 - 2, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
79', 2 - 2, ⚽,
86', 2 - 3, ⚽,

Preview

Leiria U23 is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Estoril U23 has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Estoril U23 may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Leiria U23 won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 2.5:1).

Including home match between the teams, Leiria U23 won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Estoril U23	7	3	4	0	16:12	4	13
14	Leiria U23	7	2	2	3	7:8	-1	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leiria U23
Portuguese Liga Next Gen U23
20.01.26	Maritimo U23 - Leiria U23	1:1 ✺
14.01.26	Leiria U23 - Estrela da Amadora U23	1:4 ✺
10.01.26	Gil Vicente U23 - Leiria U23	3:1 ✺
22.12.25	Leiria U23 - Sporting Lisbon U23	0:1 ✺
15.12.25	Leiria U23 - Farense U23	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 TLLLL
- Estoril U23
Portuguese Liga Next Gen U23
19.01.26	Estoril U23 - Portimonense U23	1:2 ✺
06.01.26	Estoril U23 - Estrela da Amadora U23	3:2 ✺
22.12.25	Benfica U23 - Estoril U23	1:0 ✺
14.12.25	Estrela da Amadora U23 - Estoril U23	1:1 ✺
09.12.25	Estoril U23 - Leiria U23	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LWLTT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga Next Gen U23
09.12.25	Estoril U23 - Leiria U23	2:2
23.09.25	Leiria U23 - Estoril U23	3:0

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