Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL 2 - ROUND 24

Date: 12 March 2023, Sunday

Location: Estádio do Mar (Matosinhos)

Referee: Baixinho R. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Leixões		Estrela da Amadora

	1	X	2
	3.6	3.25	1.95
	3.4	3.2	1.98
	3.35	3.45	1.96
	3.4	3.35	2.06
	3.71	3.41	2.12
	3.5	3.1	2
	3.46	3.38	2.04
	3.3	3.3	2.03
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.47 ↑ (3.01)	3.31 ↑ (3.14)	2.02 ↓ (2.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leixões
26.6%

Draw
27.8%

Estrela da Amadora
45.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.3%

29.1%

40.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.9%

27.7%

42.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leixões has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Estrela da Amadora has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Estrela da Amadora's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leixões than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estrela da Amadora than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	64.3%	21.4%

Leixões - Estrela da Amadora Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Leixões will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). Estrela will win (votes: 3 - 21.4%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 64.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 39.2% – 89.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Enjoy watching a meeting between a mid-table team and a leading team (ranked 11 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal (Relegation)).

Recent matches Leixões is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Estrela is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Estrela could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Estrela will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Leixões won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Leixões won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leixões SC
Portuguese Liga 2
05.03.23	Farense - Leixões	1:0 ✺
25.02.23	Leixões - Benfica B	1:1 ✺
19.02.23	Nacional - Leixões	1:2 ✺
11.02.23	Leixões - Feirense	0:1 ✺
05.02.23	Trofense - Leixões	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 LTWLW
- Estrela da Amadora
Portuguese Liga 2
05.03.23	Académico de Viseu - Estrela da Amadora	1:1 ✺
26.02.23	Estrela da Amadora - Tondela	0:0 ✺
18.02.23	Porto B - Estrela da Amadora	1:2 ✺
11.02.23	Estrela da Amadora - Benfica B	2:1 ✺
03.02.23	Farense - Estrela da Amadora	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 TTWWT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
18.09.22	Estrela da Amadora - Leixões	2:2
27.02.22	Leixões - Estrela da Amadora	3:0
02.10.21	Estrela da Amadora - Leixões	1:0

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