Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 15

Date: 21 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio do Mar (Matosinhos)

Referee: Branco Godinho L. M. (Por)


	Leixões		Marítimo

	1	X	2
	4	3.25	1.8	Watch
	2.9	3.2	2.15
	3.9	3.35	1.9
	3.23	3.4	2.23
	4.11	3.58	1.85
	4	3.2	1.85
	3.79	3.32	1.97	Watch
	4.25	3.4	1.81
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.77 ↑ (3.25)	3.34 ↑ (3.25)	1.95 ↓ (2.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leixões
24.6%

Draw
27.8%

Marítimo
47.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.4%

28.5%

43.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.4%

27.5%

44.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leixões has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

Marítimo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leixões than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marítimo than the current prediction. (-3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	0%	80%

Leixões - Marítimo Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Marítimo will win (12 of 15 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.76% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Marítimo will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
51. Stefanovic I. (C) 66. Balde A. 5. Naldo 4. Rafael Santos 77. Paulinho 13. Evrard Zag 22. Araujo C. 15. Simaozinho 35. Rochez B. 9. Bica 10. Paulite	12. Samu (G) 2. Igor Juliao 44. Correia R. (C) 5. Madsen N. 23. Henrique P. 20. Gomes Aguiar F. T. 10. Tejon M. 8. Cruz M. 14. Raphael Guzzo 18. Danilovic V. 28. Carlos Daniel
Substitutes
11. Agra S. 63. Faria H. 18. Kanuric B. 1. Morro M. (G) 8. Neto 94. Rajani M. 30. Serif N. 91. Valente R. 7. Werton	6. Andrade R. 90. Borukov P. 24. Da Rocha Borges R. 9. Elis A. 25. Freitas A. 98. Ibrahima 7. Pena Zauner E. 1. Tabuaco G. (G) 79. Tavares M.
Coaches
Fangueiro C.	Moita M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 3)
3', 0 - 1, Gomes Aguiar F. T. ⚽, Carlos Daniel (A),
10', 1 - 1, Rochez B. ⚽, Simaozinho (A),
11', 1 - 2, Carlos Daniel ⚽, Gomes Aguiar F. T. (A),
17', Evrard Zag ↓, Neto ↑,
31', 1 - 3, Tejon M. ⚽,
35', Neto 🟨,
37', Igor Juliao 🟨,
42', Balde A. 🟨,
45+3', Madsen N. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
51', Paulite 🟨,
64', 1 - 4, Rochez B. (Own goal),
65', Paulite ↓, Agra S. ↑,
65', Paulinho ↓, Kanuric B. ↑,
65', Cruz M. ↓, Ibrahima ↑,
73', Igor Juliao ↓, Andrade R. ↑,
74', Gomes Aguiar F. T. ↓, Pena Zauner E. ↑,
83', Balde A. ↓, Rajani M. ↑,
83', Rochez B. ↓, Valente R. ↑,
84', Raphael Guzzo ↓, Tavares M. ↑,
85', Tejon M. ↓, Elis A. ↑,
86', Naldo 🟨,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 12 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leixões won 1.

Recent form of Leixões has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Marítimo is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Recently, Marítimo has had a series of home games.

Marítimo is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Leixões won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:7. (average 0.8:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Leixões won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:4. (average 1:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leixões SC
Portuguese Liga 2
14.12.25	Portimonense - Leixões	1:2 ✺
06.12.25	Leixões - Porto B	2:4 ✺
29.11.25	Oliveirense - Leixões	2:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
23.11.25	Vila Meã - Leixões	2:1 ET ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
16.11.25	Leixões - Chaves	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WLLLL
- CS Marítimo
Portuguese Liga 2
16.12.25	Marítimo - Benfica B	1:1 ✺
06.12.25	Marítimo - Torreense	2:0 ✺
30.11.25	Portimonense - Marítimo	0:2 ✺
23.11.25	Marítimo - Penafiel	2:1 ✺
09.11.25	Marítimo - Paços de Ferreira	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
05.04.25	Marítimo - Leixões	1:1
10.11.24	Leixões - Marítimo	2:1
30.03.24	Marítimo - Leixões	0:0
12.11.23	Leixões - Marítimo	0:1
Club Friendly
26.07.22	Marítimo - Leixões	2:1
Portuguese League Cup
03.08.19	Leixões - Marítimo	1:2

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