Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 3

Date: 29 August 2025, Friday

Location: Stade Bollaert-Delelis (Lens)

Referee: Kherradji A. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Albania	SuperSport 3
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports 2, Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 5
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	Amazon Prime Video, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Israel	5 LIVE Israel
Japan	DAZN Japan
Malta	TVM Sport+
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Eleven Sports 4
Portugal	Sport TV5
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 1
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 3
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Ligue 1 Pass
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+


	Lens		Brest

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.6	3.75	Watch
	1.98	3.5	3.75
	1.95	3.7	3.7
	1.99	3.7	3.94
	4.37	3.17	1.93	Watch
	1.95	3.5	3.6
	2.02	3.84	3.86	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.31 ↑ (1.96)	3.57 ↓ (3.66)	3.5 ↓ (3.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lens
43.4%

Draw
28%

Brest
28.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.5%

26%

25.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.7%

26.6%

24.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lens has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lens's form might have worsened.

Brest has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lens than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lens, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brest than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.4%	7%	11.6%

Lens - Brest Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Lens (2.09) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Brest (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0, 1st Half - Brest (2.54) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Lens will win (35 of 42 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 72.06% – 94.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lens will win (7 of 9 users predict this - 77.78%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Lens (votes: 8 - 66.7%). Brest (votes: 4 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Risser R. (G) 24. Gradit J. 20. Sarr M. 14. Udol M. 2. Aguilar R. 28. Thomasson A. (C) 8. Sangare M. 3. Machado D. 10. Thauvin F. 22. Said W. 38. Fofana R.	1. Majecki R. (G) 77. Lala K. 4. Diaz Jr. M. 26. Le Cardinal J. 2. Locko B. 23. Doumbia K. 13. Chotard J. 8. Magnetti H. (C) 10. Del Castillo R. 19. Ajorque L. 17. Balde M.
Substitutes
23. Abdulhamid S. 6. Baidoo S. 35. Bermont A. 5. Bulatovic A. 37. Ganiou I. 29. Guilavogui M. 1. Gurtner R. (G) 7. Sotoca F. 33. Sylla F.	18. Bourgault J. 11. Camblan A. 30. Coudert G. (G) 29. Diop S. 27. Guindo D. 36. Le Guen R. 33. Makalou H. 28. Mbock H. 12. Zogbe L.
Coaches
Sage P.	Roy E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
24', 0 - 1, Balde M. ⚽, Doumbia K. (A),
45', Ajorque L. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Machado D. ↓, Baidoo S. ↑,
48', Magnetti H. 🟨,
55', Majecki R. 🟥,
57', Lala K. 🟨,
59', Del Castillo R. ↓, Coudert G. ↑,
60', 1 - 1, Thauvin F. (Pen),
69', Aguilar R. 🟨,
75', Doumbia K. ↓, Bourgault J. ↑,
75', Balde M. ↓, Makalou H. ↑,
75', Fofana R. ↓, Guilavogui M. ↑,
76', Thauvin F. ↓, Bermont A. ↑,
76', Aguilar R. ↓, Abdulhamid S. ↑,
78', 2 - 1, Guilavogui M. ⚽,
86', Chotard J. ↓, Diop S. ↑,
86', Locko B. ↓, Le Guen R. ↑,
90+2', 3 - 1, Thomasson A. ⚽, Abdulhamid S. (A),
90+3', Said W. ↓, Sotoca F. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lens won 3.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Lens might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Lens: Jhoanner Chavez (Ankle Injury) Satriano M. (Leg Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lens won 9 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 28:29. (average 1.4:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Lens won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 14:12. (average 1.4:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- RC Lens
French Ligue 1
24.08.25	Le Havre - Lens	1:2 ✺
16.08.25	Lens - Lyon	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Lens - RB Leipzig	2:1 ✺
02.08.25	Lens - Roma	0:2 ✺
30.07.25	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Lens	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 WLWLW
- Stade Brestois 29
French Ligue 1
24.08.25	Toulouse - Brest	2:0 ✺
17.08.25	Brest - Lille	3:3 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Brest - Sassuolo	1:1 ✺
03.08.25	Napoli - Brest	1:2 ✺
30.07.25	Brest - Le Havre	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 LTTWW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
20.04.25	Brest - Lens	1:3
25.08.24	Lens - Brest	2:0
09.03.24	Lens - Brest	1:0
13.08.23	Brest - Lens	3:2
05.02.23	Brest - Lens	1:1
Coupe De France
22.01.23	Brest - Lens	1:3
French Ligue 1
07.08.22	Lens - Brest	3:2

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