Match Info

Coupe de France - Semi-finals

Date: 21 April 2026, Tuesday

Location: Stade Bollaert-Delelis (Lens)

Referee: Delajod W. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Venezuela	DirecTV Sports, Inter
World	Onefootball


	Lens		Toulouse

	1	X	2
	1.55	4.1	5.5	Watch
	1.55	4.45	5.4	Watch
	1.57	4.29	6.04
	1.55	4.26	5.74	Watch
	1.53	3.9	5
	1.56	4.17	5.89	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↓ (1.74)	4.2 ↑ (3.54)	5.6 ↑ (4.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lens
60.7%

Draw
22.5%

Toulouse
16.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.3%

26.7%

19%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55%

26.4%

18.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lens has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lens's performance.

Toulouse has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lens than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lens that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (+2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.5%	18.5%	0%

Lens - Toulouse Predictions

Users Predictions: Lens will win (21 of 26 users predict this - 80.77%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.62% – 95.92%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Risser R. (G) 25. Ganiou I. 6. Baidoo S. 20. Sarr M. 23. Abdulhamid S. 8. Sangare M. 28. Thomasson A. (C) 14. Udol M. 10. Thauvin F. 9. Saint-Maximin A. 11. Edouard O.	16. Haug K. (G) 35. Koumbassa S. 4. Cresswell C. 2. Nicolaisen R. (C) 19. Sidibe D. 23. Casseres C. 18. Demba P. 24. Methalie D. 15. Donnum A. 11. Hidalgo S. 20. Emersonn
Substitutes
2. Aguilar R. 5. Bulatovic A. 38. Fofana R. 16. Gorgelin M. (G) 21. Haidara A. 27. Masuaku A. 22. Said W. 19. Sima A. 7. Sotoca F.	37. Azizi I. 44. Bakhouche Piernas G. 12. Kamanzi W. 1. Restes G. (G) 13. Russell-Rowe J. 40. Said Mchindra N. (G) 77. Sauer M. 7. Vignolo J. 45. Vossah A.
Coaches
Sage P.	Martinez C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
8', Demba P. 🟨,
9', 1 - 0, Thauvin F. (Penalty Awarded),
18', 2 - 0, Saint-Maximin A. ⚽, Thauvin F. (A),
21', 2 - 1, Hidalgo S. ⚽, Emersonn (A),
35', 3 - 1, Udol M. ⚽, Abdulhamid S. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
58', Casseres C. 🟨,
64', Saint-Maximin A. ↓, Said W. ↑,
64', Baidoo S. ↓, Masuaku A. ↑,
64', Sidibe D. ↓, Russell-Rowe J. ↑,
64', Demba P. ↓, Vossah A. ↑,
67', Martinez C. 🟨,
72', Edouard O. ↓, Sima A. ↑,
74', 4 - 1, Thomasson A. ⚽, Abdulhamid S. (A),
76', Hidalgo S. ↓, Azizi I. ↑,
76', Koumbassa S. ↓, Kamanzi W. ↑,
78', Abdulhamid S. ↓, Aguilar R. ↑,
79', Thauvin F. ↓, Haidara A. ↑,
86', Casseres C. ↓, Sauer M. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lens won 3.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Toulouse may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Lens is the team to beat.

There will not play in Lens: Antonio K. (Foot Injury) Gradit J. (Thigh Injury) Gurtner R. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Toulouse: Dominguez A. (Injury) Francis A. (Broken Leg) Magri F. (Knee Injury) McKenzie M. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Lens: Celik N. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Toulouse: Messali R. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Lens won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 18:5. (average 1.8:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Lens won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:4. (average 1.8:0.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Lens - the odds 1.74 are the expected chance of winning is 54.3%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- RC Lens
French Ligue 1
17.04.26	Lens - Toulouse	3:2 ✺
04.04.26	Lille - Lens	3:0 ✺
20.03.26	Lens - Angers	5:1 ✺
14.03.26	Lorient - Lens	2:1 ✺
08.03.26	Lens - Metz	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 WLWLW
- Toulouse FC
French Ligue 1
17.04.26	Lens - Toulouse	3:2 ✺
12.04.26	Toulouse - Lille	0:4 ✺
03.04.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Toulouse	3:1 ✺
21.03.26	Toulouse - Lorient	1:0 ✺
15.03.26	Metz - Toulouse	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
17.04.26	Lens - Toulouse	3:2
02.01.26	Toulouse - Lens	0:3
10.05.25	Toulouse - Lens	1:1
05.01.25	Lens - Toulouse	0:1
28.01.24	Toulouse - Lens	0:2
24.09.23	Lens - Toulouse	2:1
02.05.23	Toulouse - Lens	0:1

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