Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 26

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Stade du Moustoir (Lorient)

Referee: Leonard T. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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World	Onefootball


	Lorient		Lens

	1	X	2
	5.25	3.9	1.65	Watch
	4.9	3.95	1.68
	5.02	4	1.71
	5.02	4.06	1.65	Watch
	4.8	3.75	1.65
	5.2	4.08	1.69	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.03 ↑ (3.84)	3.96 ↑ (3.6)	1.67 ↓ (1.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lorient
18.9%

Draw
24.1%

Lens
57%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.6%

26.2%

49.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.4%

26%

49.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorient has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lorient's form might have worsened.

Lens has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lens's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorient than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lorient, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lens than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lens, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.4%	18.5%	74.1%

Lorient - Lens Predictions

Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. Lorient will win (votes: 2 - 7.4%). Lens will win (votes: 20 - 74.1%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 18.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lens: 57.6% – 90.6%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH +0.5 - Lorient (2.25) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lens will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Lorient (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Lens (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
38. Mvogo Y. (G) 5. Meite B. 3. Talbi M. (C) 25. Faye A. 11. Le Bris T. 8. Cadiou N. 62. Avom A. 43. Kouassi A. 17. Makengo J. 29. Karim D. 12. Dieng B.	40. Risser R. (G) 4. Celik N. 25. Ganiou I. 20. Sarr M. 23. Abdulhamid S. 8. Sangare M. 28. Thomasson A. (C) 14. Udol M. 10. Thauvin F. 19. Sima A. 11. Edouard O.
Substitutes
32. Adjei N. 34. Bley M. 21. Kamara B. (G) 77. Katseris P. 14. Sanusi T. 35. Semedo D. 28. Soumano S. 15. Tosin A. 44. Yongwa D.	26. Bermont A. 5. Bulatovic A. 38. Fofana R. 34. Garnier E. 16. Gorgelin M. (G) 21. Haidara A. 39. Lenne O. 7. Sotoca F. 18. Sylla F.
Coaches
Pantaloni O.	Sage P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
18', 1 - 0, Dieng B. ⚽,
23', Celik N. 🟨,
26', Faye A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
48', 1 - 1, Edouard O. ⚽, Sangare M. (A),
54', Talbi M. 🟨,
64', Dieng B. ↓, Tosin A. ↑,
65', 2 - 1, Tosin A. ⚽, Kouassi A. (A),
68', Celik N. ↓, Haidara A. ↑,
71', Ganiou I. 🟨,
73', Thomasson A. ↓, Bulatovic A. ↑,
73', Sima A. ↓, Bermont A. ↑,
75', Abdulhamid S. 🟨,
81', Makengo J. ↓, Katseris P. ↑,
82', Karim D. ↓, Soumano S. ↑,
84', Edouard O. ↓, Fofana R. ↑,
84', Abdulhamid S. ↓, Garnier E. ↑,
90+6', Le Bris T. ↓, Adjei N. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 10 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lorient won 0.

In recent matches, Lorient has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Lens is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Lorient may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Lens is the team to beat.

There will not play in Lorient: Abergel L. (Ankle Injury) Fadiga B. (Injury) Pagis P. (Red Card) Sanusi T. (Injury) Toure I. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Lens: Aguilar R. (Injury) Antonio K. (Foot Injury) Baidoo S. (Muscle Injury) Gradit J. (Thigh Injury) Gurtner R. (Muscle Injury) Masuaku A. (Red Card) Said W. (Injury) Saint-Maximin A. (Calf Injury)

There are questionable in Lorient: Igor Silva (Injury)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Lorient won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 22:32. (average 1.2:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Lorient won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:13. (average 1.4:1.4).

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Lens: 1.95% Lorient: 0.35%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Lorient	5	1	2	2	5:6	-1	5
15	Lens	5	1	1	3	9:9	0	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Lorient
French Ligue 1
08.03.26	Lille - Lorient	1:1 ✺
Coupe De France
04.03.26	Lorient - Nice	0:1 penalties ✺
French Ligue 1
01.03.26	Lorient - Auxerre	2:2 ✺
22.02.26	Nice - Lorient	3:3 ✺
15.02.26	Lorient - Angers	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 TLTTW
- RC Lens
French Ligue 1
08.03.26	Lens - Metz	3:0 ✺
Coupe De France
05.03.26	Lyon - Lens	2:3 penalties ✺
French Ligue 1
27.02.26	Strasbourg - Lens	1:1 ✺
21.02.26	Lens - Monaco	2:3 ✺
14.02.26	Paris FC - Lens	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WWTLW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
02.11.25	Lens - Lorient	3:0
03.05.24	Lens - Lorient	2:0
04.11.23	Lorient - Lens	0:0
21.05.23	Lorient - Lens	1:3
Coupe De France
09.02.23	Lorient - Lens	1:2 penalties
French Ligue 1
31.08.22	Lens - Lorient	5:2
06.02.22	Lorient - Lens	2:0

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