Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 26

Date: 15 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Stade Saint-Symphorien (Metz)

Referee: Angoula G. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, beIN Sports MENA, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 5
Brazil	Caze TV
Canada	beIN Connect
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Croatia	Arena Sport 8, MAXtv To Go
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 6, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Italy	Ligue 1+
Japan	DAZN Japan
Mexico	FOX One
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Romania	Voyo
Russia	Okko Sport
Slovakia	Nova Sport 6
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Ligue 1+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Onefootball


	Metz		Toulouse

	1	X	2
	3.7	3.5	2	Watch
	3.9	3.2	2.05
	3.7	3.45	2.02
	3.9	3.55	2.04
	3.76	3.51	1.99	Watch
	3.7	3.3	1.95
	3.94	3.58	2.07	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.8 ↓ (3.87)	3.44 ↑ (3.38)	2.02 ↑ (1.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Metz
25.1%

Draw
27.7%

Toulouse
47.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.4%

27.9%

47.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.5%

26.7%

45.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Metz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Toulouse has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Metz than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
23.5%	23.5%	52.9%

Metz - Toulouse Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Metz will win (votes: 4 - 23.5%). Toulouse will win (votes: 9 - 52.9%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 23.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Toulouse: 29.2% – 76.6%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Toulouse (1.97) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Toulouse (1.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Toulouse will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Toulouse (votes: 6 - 85.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fischer J. (G) 39. Kouao K. 38. Sane S. 4. Mboula U. 2. Colin M. (C) 5. Gbamin J. 20. Deminguet J. 70. Sarr B. 10. Hein G. 7. Tsitaishvili G. 34. Mbala N.	1. Restes G. (G) 19. Sidibe D. 3. McKenzie M. 2. Nicolaisen R. (C) 15. Donnum A. 45. Vossah A. 18. Demba P. 12. Kamanzi W. 11. Hidalgo S. 13. Russell-Rowe J. 10. Gboho Y.
Substitutes
9. Abuashvili G. 97. Ballo-Toure F. 30. Diallo H. 19. Michal L. 33. Munongo B. 35. Pandore J. 61. Sy P. (G) 12. Toure A. 15. Yegbe T.	37. Azizi I. 44. Bakhouche Piernas G. 33. El Ouali A. 20. Emersonn 16. Haug K. (G) 35. Koumbassa S. 40. Said Mchindra N. (G) 77. Sauer M. 7. Vignolo J.
Coaches
Tavenot B.	Martinez C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 3)
6', 0 - 1, Donnum A. ⚽, Demba P. (A),
14', 0 - 2, Gboho Y. ⚽, Hidalgo S. (A),
30', 1 - 2, Mbala N. ⚽, Tsitaishvili G. (A),
31', 2 - 2, Kouao K. ⚽,
34', Vossah A. 🟨,
45+3', 2 - 3, Gboho Y. ⚽, Kamanzi W. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
61', Restes G. ↓, Haug K. ↑,
65', Vossah A. ↓, Sauer M. ↑,
65', Russell-Rowe J. ↓, Emersonn ↑,
70', Mbala N. ↓, Diallo H. ↑,
70', Deminguet J. ↓, Toure A. ↑,
71', Kouao K. ↓, Abuashvili G. ↑,
76', Mboula U. ↓, Yegbe T. ↑,
76', Hidalgo S. ↓, Koumbassa S. ↑,
88', 3 - 3, Abuashvili G. ⚽,
90', Sarr B. ↓, Michal L. ↑,
90+5', Kamanzi W. 🟨,
90+9', 3 - 4, Sauer M. ⚽, Donnum A. (A),
90+11', Emersonn 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Metz won 0.

Metz has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Toulouse is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Toulouse may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Toulouse is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Metz: Mangondo J. (Knee Injury) Melieres C. (Injury) Stambouli B. (Injury) Sy P. (Concussion) Traore B. (Injury)

There will not play in Toulouse: Azizi I. (Knee Injury) Casseres C. (Injury) Cresswell C. (Muscle Injury) Francis A. (Broken Leg) Magri F. (Knee Injury) Messali R. (Injury)

There are questionable in Metz: Diallo H. (Inactive) Kvilitaia G. (Inactive)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Metz won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 11:19. (average 0.9:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Metz won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:8. (average 1.5:1.3).

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Toulouse: 0.43%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Toulouse	5	1	2	2	7:9	-2	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Metz
French Ligue 1
08.03.26	Lens - Metz	3:0 ✺
01.03.26	Metz - Brest	0:1 ✺
21.02.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Metz	3:0 ✺
15.02.26	Metz - Auxerre	1:3 ✺
06.02.26	Metz - Lille	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LLLLT
- Toulouse FC
French Ligue 1
07.03.26	Toulouse - Olympique Marseille	0:1 ✺
Coupe De France
04.03.26	Olympique Marseille - Toulouse	2:3 penalties ✺
French Ligue 1
28.02.26	Rennes - Toulouse	1:0 ✺
21.02.26	Toulouse - Paris FC	1:1 ✺
15.02.26	Le Havre - Toulouse	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 LWLTL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
19.10.25	Toulouse - Metz	4:0
14.01.24	Metz - Toulouse	0:1
01.10.23	Toulouse - Metz	3:0
28.09.19	Metz - Toulouse	2:2
03.03.18	Metz - Toulouse	1:1
18.11.17	Toulouse - Metz	0:0
14.05.17	Metz - Toulouse	1:1

Upcoming Matches