Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 27

Date: 21 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadium de Toulouse (Toulouse)

Referee: Paradis G. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 5
Brazil	Caze TV
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Croatia	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Israel	5 SPORT Israel, Sport 5 Max
Italy	Ligue 1+
Japan	DAZN Japan
Mexico	FOX One
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Portugal	Sport TV7
Romania	Voyo
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 1x2
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Ligue 1+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Tubi TV
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Onefootball


	Toulouse		Lorient

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.25	4.75	Watch
	1.95	3.2	4.2
	1.9	3.35	4.4	Watch
	1.89	3.45	4.91
	1.81	3.37	4.89	Watch
	1.8	3.3	4.2
	1.85	3.39	5.13	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↓ (2)	3.33 ↑ (2.95)	4.64 ↑ (4.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toulouse
51%

Draw
28.5%

Lorient
20.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.3%

32.1%

20.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.3%

34.8%

19.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toulouse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Lorient has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lorient than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
67.9%	10.7%	21.4%

Toulouse - Lorient Predictions

Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. Toulouse will win (votes: 19 - 70.4%). Lorient will win (votes: 6 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 7.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Toulouse: 53.2% – 87.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Toulouse (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Toulouse (1.97) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Lorient (4.73) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Toulouse (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Lorient (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Restes G. (G) 35. Koumbassa S. 2. Nicolaisen R. (C) 3. McKenzie M. 19. Sidibe D. 23. Casseres C. 18. Demba P. 15. Donnum A. 11. Hidalgo S. 13. Russell-Rowe J. 10. Gboho Y.	38. Mvogo Y. (G) 44. Yongwa D. 32. Adjei N. 25. Faye A. 11. Le Bris T. (C) 8. Cadiou N. 62. Avom A. 43. Kouassi A. 17. Makengo J. 29. Karim D. 12. Dieng B.
Substitutes
37. Azizi I. 44. Bakhouche Piernas G. 20. Emersonn 16. Haug K. (G) 12. Kamanzi W. 40. Said Mchindra N. (G) 77. Sauer M. 7. Vignolo J. 45. Vossah A.	33. Akakpo I. 34. Bley M. 21. Kamara B. (G) 77. Katseris P. 19. Monnier I. 14. Sanusi T. 35. Semedo D. 28. Soumano S. 15. Tosin A.
Coaches
Martinez C.	Pantaloni O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
5', Hidalgo S. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
48', Cadiou N. 🟨,
65', Russell-Rowe J. ↓, Emersonn ↑,
65', Hidalgo S. ↓, Kamanzi W. ↑,
71', Faye A. 🟨,
74', Dieng B. ↓, Soumano S. ↑,
74', Karim D. ↓, Tosin A. ↑,
79', Le Bris T. ↓, Katseris P. ↑,
82', 1 - 0, Emersonn ⚽, Casseres C. (A),
85', Sidibe D. ↓, Sauer M. ↑,
86', Donnum A. 🟨,
90+11', Makengo J. 🟨,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 11 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toulouse won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, Toulouse is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Toulouse: Cresswell C. (Muscle Injury) Dominguez A. (Injury) Francis A. (Broken Leg) Magri F. (Knee Injury) Messali R. (Injury) Methalie D. (Injury)

There will not play in Lorient: Abergel L. (Ankle Injury) Fadiga B. (Muscle Injury) Igor Silva (Injury) Meite B. (Yellow Cards) Pagis P. (Red Card) Toure I. (Knee Injury)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Toulouse won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 22:20. (average 1.3:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Toulouse won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 12:14. (average 1.3:1.6).

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Toulouse: 0.43% Lorient: 0.35%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Lorient	5	1	2	2	5:6	-1	5
13	Toulouse	5	1	2	2	7:9	-2	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Toulouse FC
French Ligue 1
15.03.26	Metz - Toulouse	3:4 ✺
07.03.26	Toulouse - Olympique Marseille	0:1 ✺
Coupe De France
04.03.26	Olympique Marseille - Toulouse	2:3 penalties ✺
French Ligue 1
28.02.26	Rennes - Toulouse	1:0 ✺
21.02.26	Toulouse - Paris FC	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 WLWLT
- FC Lorient
French Ligue 1
14.03.26	Lorient - Lens	2:1 ✺
08.03.26	Lille - Lorient	1:1 ✺
Coupe De France
04.03.26	Lorient - Nice	0:1 penalties ✺
French Ligue 1
01.03.26	Lorient - Auxerre	2:2 ✺
22.02.26	Nice - Lorient	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.2 WTLTT

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
09.11.25	Lorient - Toulouse	1:1
28.04.24	Lorient - Toulouse	1:2
03.12.23	Toulouse - Lorient	1:1
23.04.23	Lorient - Toulouse	0:1
21.08.22	Toulouse - Lorient	2:2
French Coupe de la Ligue
31.10.18	Toulouse - Lorient	0:1
French Ligue 1
08.02.17	Lorient - Toulouse	1:1

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