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Current Win Probability
Leones del Norte 53.4%
Draw 27.1%
Guayaquil City 19.5%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
44.7%
30.9%
24.4%
Our Initial ML Estimation
45.3%
30.5%
24.1%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Leones del Norte has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.7%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Leones del Norte's performance.
Guayaquil City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leones del Norte than the current prediction. (-8.1%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Leones del Norte that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guayaquil City than the current prediction. (+4.6%)
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
81.8%
18.2%
0%
Leones del Norte - Guayaquil City Predictions
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Leones del Norte (votes: 1 - 100%).
Users Predictions:
Leones del Norte will win
(9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%). Confidence interval (95%): 59.03% – 100%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
45. Nazareno L. (G) 7. Luque M. 23. Monserrat N. 2. Moran J. 16. De La Cruz M. 8. Velez C. 6. Griffa E. 11. Caramuto M. 70. Pazmino D. 99. Solano C. 40. Anangono J. (C)
1. Napa G. (G) 17. Ayovi Caicedo J. J. 3. Rodriguez Y. 29. Quinonez J. 6. Arias R. 14. Arroyo D. 20. Laurino S. 23. Bolanos M. (C) 80. Gonzalez P. 10. Diaz D. 11. Mero E.
Substitutes
32. Aguas A. 22. Arroyo J. (G) 55. Borja R. 13. Cabeza J. 50. Caicedo M. 27. Caicedo Nestor 5. Coppo T. 14. Folleco A. 29. Madero P. 19. Pepinos E. 34. Portocarrero S. 3. Vargas F.
51. Cabezas E. 21. Dorregaray D. 4. Ladines Calvache E. P. 19. Naula A. 16. Ordonez J. 9. Palma M. 12. Perea R. (G) 50. Rivadeneira F. 15. Sambonino K. 28. Vivar J.
Coaches
Cordoba M.
Gavilanez P.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 1)
10', 0 - 1, Gonzalez P. ⚽, Mero E. (A),
21', Arias R. 🟨,
24', Caramuto M. 🟨,
32', Bolanos M. 🟨,
39', Cordoba M. 🟨,
45+1', Napa G. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Caramuto M. ↓, Pepinos E. ↑,
61', 1 - 1, Pazmino D. ⚽, Solano C. (A),
68', Diaz D. ↓, Cabezas E. ↑,
68', Gonzalez P. ↓, Naula A. ↑,
68', Quinonez J. ↓, Ladines Calvache E. P. ↑,
70', Velez C. ↓, Madero P. ↑,
81', Pazmino D. ↓, Caicedo Nestor ↑,
81', Solano C. ↓, Portocarrero S. ↑,
81', Luque M. ↓, Aguas A. ↑,
82', Bolanos M. ↓, Dorregaray D. ↑,
89', Moran J. 🟨,
90+4', Mero E. ↓, Palma M. ↑,
Preview
This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: ) and 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leones del Norte won 2.
Leones del Norte is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
Guayaquil City's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
In this match, Leones del Norte is a strong favorite.
We predict that Leones del Norte will win today's game, with odds of 1.77.
In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Leones del Norte won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:5. (average 0.6:0.6).
Including home matches between the teams, Leones del Norte won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 0.8:0.3).
Ecuador
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Nazareno L. (G) 
Luque M. 
Laurino S. 
Palma M. 
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