Match Info

Liga Pro - Placement Group - Round 2

Date: 9 October 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne (Loja) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Aragon A. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Ecuador	13:00	Zapping, Zapping Sports
Peru	13:00	Zapping Sports


	Libertad Loja		Leones del Norte

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.1	2.85	Watch
	2.30	3.00	2.75
	2.4	2.95	2.85	Watch
	2.53	3.1	3.03
	2.5	3.1	2.93	Watch
	2.45	3	2.95
	2.46	3.08	2.95	Watch
	2.39	3	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.43 ↑ (2.39)	3.04 ↓ (3.08)	2.9 ↑ (2.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Libertad Loja
37.9%

Draw
30.3%

Leones del Norte
31.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

38.2%

29.7%

32.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.3%

29.2%

31.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Libertad Loja has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Leones del Norte has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Libertad Loja than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leones del Norte than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Libertad Loja - Leones del Norte Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Cabezas D. (C) 17. Patta E. 6. Caicedo B. 2. Morinigo R. 19. Quinonez O. 20. Rodriguez Perlaza J. G. 70. Branda V. 30. Bravo J. 80. Pineda Arana X. E. 10. Cortez Casierra G. J. 33. Chere A.	22. Arroyo J. (G) 7. Luque M. 2. Moran J. 23. Monserrat N. 25. Kreiman B. 16. De La Cruz M. 8. Velez C. 5. Coppo T. 6. Griffa E. 99. Solano C. 40. Anangono J. (C)
Substitutes
27. Bueno S. 9. Caicedo E. 8. Castro S. 49. Coronel D. 66. Estacio J. 5. Gruezo C. 23. Guisamano J. 25. Lucas M. 1. Mina P. (G) 7. Orejuela C. 18. Quinonez Y.	17. Amilivia T. 18. Arellano J. 4. Arroyo R. 55. Borja R. 13. Cabeza J. 50. Caicedo M. 11. Caramuto M. 14. Folleco A. 45. Nazareno L. (G) 31. Padilla G. 70. Pazmino D. 3. Vargas F.
Coaches
Celico J.	Cordoba M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
26', 1 - 0, Patta E. ⚽,
45+1', Velez C. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
65', Solano C. ↓, Pazmino D. ↑,
65', Velez C. ↓, Amilivia T. ↑,
67', 2 - 0, Branda V. ⚽, Pineda Arana X. E. (A),
71', Chere A. ↓, Caicedo E. ↑,
81', Monserrat N. ↓, Caramuto M. ↑,
81', De La Cruz M. ↓, Caicedo M. ↑,
81', Cortez Casierra G. J. ↓, Coronel D. ↑,
81', Branda V. ↓, Orejuela C. ↑,
85', Coppo T. ↓, Arroyo R. ↑,
88', 3 - 0, Pineda Arana X. E. ⚽,
89', Pineda Arana X. E. ↓, Estacio J. ↑,
90+1', Arroyo R. 🟨,

Preview

Both teams have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Libertad has recorded 0 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 2:4 (averaging 1:2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Libertad against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 1:3 goals.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Libertad Loja
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
19.09.26	Emelec - Libertad Loja	1:2 ✺
13.09.26	Libertad Loja - Independiente del Valle	2:3 ✺
06.09.26	Deportivo Cuenca - Libertad Loja	0:1 ✺
03.09.26	Libertad Loja - Emelec	1:1 ✺
30.08.26	SD Aucas - Libertad Loja	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.2 WLWTL
- Leones del Norte
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
19.09.26	Guayaquil City - Leones del Norte	1:1 ✺
13.09.26	Leones del Norte - Técnico Universitario	0:1 ✺
07.09.26	Mushuc Runa - Leones del Norte	1:1 ✺
03.09.26	Leones del Norte - Orense	1:0 ✺
30.08.26	Emelec - Leones del Norte	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 TLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
04.07.26	Libertad Loja - Leones del Norte	1:3
28.02.26	Leones del Norte - Libertad Loja	1:1

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