Match Info

LaLiga2 - Round 40

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Reino de León (León)

Referee: Moreno A. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
Peru	Disney+
Spain	DAZN Espana, LaLiga Hypermotion 2, LaLiga Hypermotion
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Leonesa		Eibar

	1	X	2
	3	3.3	2.25	Watch
	3.05	3.2	2.28	Watch
	3.2	3.32	2.39
	3.15	3.23	2.35	Watch
	3	3.1	2.3
	3.06	3.36	2.34	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.08 ↑ (2.99)	3.25 ↑ (3.16)	2.32 ↓ (2.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leonesa
30.6%

Draw
28.9%

Eibar
40.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.5%

29.8%

38.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.1%

30.3%

38.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leonesa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Eibar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leonesa than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Eibar than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
5.6%	16.7%	77.8%

Leonesa - Eibar Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Leonesa will win (votes: 1 - 5.6%). Eibar will win (votes: 14 - 77.8%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Eibar: 58.6% – 97%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Eibar (1.66) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Eibar (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Badia E. (G) 24. Garcia V. 36. Barzic M. 5. Fornos Q. (C) 21. Hinojo R. 15. Ribeiro L. 14. Bicho 22. Radoja N. 10. Chacon L. 12. Al Amin H. 7. Collado D.	13. Magunagoitia J. (G) 2. Cubero S. 21. Moreno M. 15. Jair 23. Arbilla A. (C) 6. Alvarez S. 30. Garrido A. 18. Ares A. 11. Magunazelaia Argoitia J. 17. Corpas J. 9. Bautista J.
Substitutes
1. Banuz M. (G) 23. Diallo Selu M. 8. Gonzalez Y. 6. Maestre S. 39. Morante A. 11. Moreno V. 26. Rafus A. (G) 16. Ribeiro T. 2. Rodriguez P. 3. Satrustegui E. 19. Sobrino R.	4. Arambarri A. 3. Arrillaga H. 24. Bernat J. 33. Delgado M. 27. Garcia H. 20. Javier Marton 1. Lopez L. (G) 16. Madariaga A. 5. Martinez J. 14. Olaetxea L. 22. Rodriguez A. 19. Villa T.
Coaches
de la Barrera R.	San Jose B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
27', Barzic M. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
55', Magunazelaia Argoitia J. 🟨,
56', Chacon L. 🟨,
58', Alvarez S. ↓, Olaetxea L. ↑,
58', Al Amin H. ↓, Moreno V. ↑,
58', Magunazelaia Argoitia J. ↓, Madariaga A. ↑,
59', 1 - 0, Moreno V. ⚽, Radoja N. (A),
61', 2 - 0, Barzic M. ⚽, Ribeiro L. (A),
67', Garrido A. ↓, Javier Marton ↑,
67', Moreno M. ↓, Bernat J. ↑,
75', Fornos Q. ↓, Ribeiro T. ↑,
76', Collado D. ↓, Morante A. ↑,
85', 2 - 1, Corpas J. (Penalty Awarded),
86', Corpas J. ↓, Garcia H. ↑,
87', Chacon L. ↓, Sobrino R. ↑,
88', Ribeiro L. ↓, Maestre S. ↑,
88', Jair 🟨,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 22 in the zone Relegation and 7).

Leonesa is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Eibar is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Leonesa: Calero I. (Red Card)

There will not play in Eibar: Guruzeta J. (Muscle Injury) Nolaskoain P. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Leonesa: Fornos Q. (Injury) Justo M. (Injury) Ojeda T. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Leonesa won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Eibar	8	7	0	1	18:7	11	21

Last Results with these Odds

Leonesa - the odds 2.99 are the expected chance of winning is 31.45%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Eibar - the odds 2.43 are the expected chance of winning is 38.78%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa
Spanish LaLiga2
09.05.26	Albacete Balompié - Leonesa	2:1 ✺
02.05.26	Leonesa - Cádiz	2:2 ✺
26.04.26	Mirandés - Leonesa	2:1 ✺
18.04.26	Leonesa - Córdoba	1:2 ✺
12.04.26	Granada - Leonesa	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LTLLL
- SD Eibar
Spanish LaLiga2
10.05.26	Mirandés - Eibar	0:1 ✺
02.05.26	Eibar - Málaga	2:4 ✺
24.04.26	Albacete Balompié - Eibar	0:3 ✺
19.04.26	Eibar - Huesca	2:1 ✺
13.04.26	Valladolid - Eibar	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
07.12.25	Eibar - Leonesa	1:2

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