Match Info

US Open Cup - 1/32-finals

Date: 1 April 2026, Wednesday

Location: Toyota Stadium (Georgetown, KY)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	Paramount+


	Lexington		Louisville City

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.4	2.1	Watch
				Watch
	2.98	3.4	2.28
	2.77	3.34	2.46
	2.82	3.35	2.3	Watch
	2.8	3	2.25
	2.91	3.24	2.23	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.84 ↓ (3.09)	3.29 ↓ (3.54)	2.27 ↑ (2.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lexington
32.1%

Draw
27.7%

Louisville City
40.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.4%

25.6%

44.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.3%

26.4%

43.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lexington has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Louisville City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lexington than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Louisville City than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

Lexington - Louisville City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
17. Semmle O. (G) 22. Hafferty J. 4. Ordonez A. 5. Burks K. 6. Molloy A. (C) 11. Midence A. 16. Ferri B. 2. Greene J. 7. Epps M. 8. Nick Firmino 9. Goodrum P.	1. Fauroux H. (G) 4. Totsch S. 32. Adams K. (C) 16. Moguel C. 23. Gleadle S. 8. Davila T. 19. Niang B. 3. Morris J. 47. Akale M. 25. Wilson J. 14. Showunmi T.
Substitutes
40. Addams G. (G) 10. Adedokun M. 23. Brown J. 18. Henry-Scott M. 19. Scott T. 26. Stout J. 12. Zengue X.	27. Davila E. 13. Dia A. 9. Donovan C. 6. Duncan Z. 15. Perez E. 7. Serrano R. 30. Troutman R. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
23', 0 - 1, Niang B. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
51', 0 - 2, Showunmi T. ⚽,
61', Wilson J. ↓, Serrano R. ↑,
61', Morris J. ↓, Dia A. ↑,
61', Epps M. ↓, Zengue X. ↑,
61', Nick Firmino ↓, Adedokun M. ↑,
61', Gleadle S. ↓, Perez E. ↑,
78', Davila T. ↓, Duncan Z. ↑,
81', Greene J. ↓, Henry-Scott M. ↑,
81', Akale M. ↓, Davila E. ↑,
84', Burks K. ↓, Brown J. ↑,

Preview

Recent performances by Lexington have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Louisville City is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Lexington may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Lexington has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Lexington won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 2:6. (average 0.7:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Lexington won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:4. (average 1:2).

Last Results with these Odds

Louisville City - the odds 2.02 are the expected chance of winning is 44.94%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lexington SC
USL Championship
29.03.26	San Antonio - Lexington	2:0 ✺
25.03.26	Lexington - Brooklyn	3:0 ✺
US Open Cup
19.03.26	Lexington - City Union	9:0 ✺
USL Championship
14.03.26	Lexington - Sacramento Republic	0:0 ✺
06.03.26	Lexington - Louisville City	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LWWTL
- Louisville City FC
USL Championship
28.03.26	Brooklyn - Louisville City	0:1 ✺
21.03.26	Louisville City - Rhode Island	4:2 ✺
US Open Cup
18.03.26	Louisville City - Southern Indiana	2:0 ✺
USL Championship
14.03.26	Louisville City - Miami	4:1 ✺
06.03.26	Lexington - Louisville City	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
06.03.26	Lexington - Louisville City	1:2
USL Cup
26.07.25	Lexington - Louisville City	1:2
USL Championship
01.05.25	Louisville City - Lexington	2:0

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