Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Lynn Family Stadium (Louisville, KY)

Referee: Encarnación J. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+


	Louisville City		Miami

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.3	4.95	8.1
	1.28	5.57	11.14
	1.38	4.78	7.32	Watch
	1.3	4.8	8
	1.33	5.14	8.12	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.32 ↓ (1.61)	5.05 ↑ (3.89)	8.54 ↑ (4.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Louisville City
70.6%

Draw
18.4%

Miami
10.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57%

23.7%

19.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Louisville City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Louisville City's performance.

Miami has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Miami might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Louisville City - Miami Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Troutman R. (G) 2. McFadden A. 4. Totsch S. 5. Dayes B. 32. Adams K. 3. Morris J. 31. Lambert K. 9. Donovan C. 8. Davila T. 25. Wilson J. 7. Serrano R.	1. Room E. (G) 8. Romero M. 4. Calfo A. 6. Tulu 21. Milesi A. 16. Diaz G. 23. Musto T. 9. Sonora J. 26. Rocha A. 27. Ndongo M. 10. Locadia J.
Substitutes
6. Duncan Z. 12. Faundez D. (G) 21. Huerman Q. 16. Moguel C. 19. Niang B. 15. Perez E. 14. Showunmi T.	35. Bent B. 3. Kilwien P. 37. Mello D. 12. Ndiaye B. 31. Rodriguez F. (G) 5. Tori R. 7. Tunbridge M.
Coaches
Cruz D.	Maddoni G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
8', 1 - 0, McFadden A. ⚽, Donovan C. (A),
28', 2 - 0, Serrano R. ⚽, Davila T. (A),
30', 3 - 0, Donovan C. ⚽, Wilson J. (A),
44', 3 - 1, Milesi A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Lambert K. ↓, Duncan Z. ↑,
46', Diaz G. ↓, Ndiaye B. ↑,
61', Rocha A. ↓, Tunbridge M. ↑,
62', Tulu ↓, Kilwien P. ↑,
68', 4 - 1, Wilson J. ⚽, Serrano R. (A),
75', Adams K. ↓, Perez E. ↑,
75', Serrano R. ↓, Huerman Q. ↑,
76', Musto T. ↓, Tori R. ↑,
76', Ndongo M. ↓, Bent B. ↑,
80', Wilson J. 🟨,
86', McFadden A. ↓, Moguel C. ↑,
90+1', Davila T. ↓, Niang B. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Louisville City won 4.

Louisville City may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Louisville City is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Louisville City won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 19:9. (average 2.1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Louisville City won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:1. (average 2:0.2).

Last Results with these Odds

Louisville City - the odds 1.61 are the expected chance of winning is 57.05%, but this team recently wins 89% of matches with these odds.

Miami - the odds 4.77 are the expected chance of winning is 19.27%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Louisville City FC
USL Championship
06.03.26	Lexington - Louisville City	1:2 ✺
01.11.25	Louisville City - Detroit City	0:1 ✺
25.10.25	Louisville City - Hartford Athletic	1:0 ✺
18.10.25	Orange County SC - Louisville City	0:0 ✺
11.10.25	Louisville City - Miami	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WLWTW
- Miami FC
USL Championship
25.10.25	Sacramento Republic - Miami	0:1 ✺
19.10.25	Birmingham Legion - Miami	2:3 ✺
11.10.25	Louisville City - Miami	1:0 ✺
04.10.25	Miami - Pittsburgh Riverhounds	3:1 ✺
26.09.25	North Carolina - Miami	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.4 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
11.10.25	Louisville City - Miami	1:0
16.08.25	Miami - Louisville City	2:4
02.10.24	Louisville City - Miami	3:0
01.06.24	Miami - Louisville City	1:2
20.09.23	Miami - Louisville City	4:3
13.05.23	Louisville City - Miami	3:1
27.08.22	Miami - Louisville City	1:0

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