Match Info

EFL Trophy

Date: 28 October 2025, Tuesday

Location: St James Park (Exeter)

Referee: Mulhall S. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Exeter City		Arsenal U21

	1	X	2
	1.8	4.33	3.3
	1.78	3.95	3.55
	1.92	3.96	3.38	Watch
	1.94	3.88	3.31
	1.71	4.2	3.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↑ (1.71)	4.06 ↓ (4.2)	3.5 ↓ (3.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Exeter City
50.7%

Draw
22.8%

Arsenal U21
26.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.9%

22%

24.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55%

22.5%

23.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Exeter City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Arsenal U21 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Exeter City than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arsenal U21 than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Exeter City - Arsenal U21 Predictions

Users Predictions: Exeter City will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Bycroft J. (G) 26. Sweeney P. (C) 16. Swinkels S. 34. Oakes L. 33. Dean T. 20. Woodhouse L. 8. Francis E. 14. Niskanen I. 10. Aitchison J. 37. Wilson K. 27. Magennis J.	35. Setford T. (C) 48. Nichols J. 37. Clarke B. 54. Lannin-Sweet W. 55. Washington M. 58. Agustien D. 72. Ibrahim I. 45. Kamara O. 39. Dudziak H. 53. Sagoe Jr C. 76. O'Neill C.
Substitutes
21. Andrew D. 42. Birch G. 45. Cummins C. 29. McDonald K. 4. Turns E. 9. Wareham J. 1. Whitworth J. (G)	40. Ferdinand S. 83. Hamill C. 73. Julienne T. 86. Murisa T. 75. Ogunnaike J. 79. Ranson K. (G) 57. Stevens A.
Coaches
Caldwell G.	Porter M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
16', 0 - 1, Sagoe Jr C. ⚽, O'Neill C. (A),
2nd Half (4 - 2)
50', 1 - 1, Magennis J. ⚽,
54', 1 - 2, Dudziak H. ⚽,
55', Swinkels S. ↓, Turns E. ↑,
55', Niskanen I. ↓, Andrew D. ↑,
64', 2 - 2, Aitchison J. ⚽, Francis E. (A),
71', Washington M. ↓, Ogunnaike J. ↑,
71', Aitchison J. ↓, Birch G. ↑,
71', Wilson K. ↓, Wareham J. ↑,
71', Dean T. ↓, McDonald K. ↑,
72', Nichols J. ↓, Hamill C. ↑,
74', 2 - 3, Kamara O. ⚽, Sagoe Jr C. (A),
76', 3 - 3, Magennis J. ⚽,
77', Ibrahim I. ↓, Murisa T. ↑,
84', Kamara O. ↓, Ferdinand S. ↑,
87', 4 - 3, Wareham J. ⚽, Woodhouse L. (A),

Preview

Recent performances by Exeter have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Arsenal U21 is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Arsenal U21 may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Exeter is a strong favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Exeter won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:5.

Including home match between the teams, Exeter won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Exeter City
English League One
23.10.25	Exeter City - Plymouth Argyle	2:0 ✺
18.10.25	Stockport County - Exeter City	1:0 ✺
11.10.25	Exeter City - Reading	1:1 ✺
04.10.25	Lincoln City - Exeter City	0:1 ✺
27.09.25	Exeter City - Huddersfield Town	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 WLTWL
- Arsenal U21
English Premier League 2
25.10.25	Chelsea U21 - Arsenal U21	2:1 ✺
04.10.25	Arsenal U21 - West Ham United U21	2:2 ✺
26.09.25	Derby County U21 - Arsenal U21	0:1 ✺
English EFL Trophy
23.09.25	Newport County - Arsenal U21	1:2 ✺
English Premier League 2
20.09.25	Arsenal U21 - Wolverhampton Wanderers U21	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 LTWWW

Latest Head to Head

English EFL Trophy
10.10.23	Exeter City - Arsenal U21	0:5

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